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Well folks there’s something uh pretty big happening here in the next couple months that i think it’s very important that everybody pays attention this and understands exactly how this works and why this is going to be an extremely good thing for investors in the stock market because the last two and a half years in the stock market has been a complete mess of a
Market to invest in and i mean a complete mess of it and we’re gonna talk about all this i’m gonna break all this down as simple as possible what’s going on here essentially so every investor out there kind of understands what we’ve been going through in how abnormal this is and what we’re about to go into so hopefully you can have a better understanding of kind of
What’s coming next and how these things usually work uh versus like the the freak situations that have been happening and those sorts of things so i hope you guys get good value out of today’s video i think it’s a very important video that i’m doing here today and uh yeah before we get into that just so you guys know there’s a few hours left on the becoming master
Of the stock market sale for 700 off there and uh then that one is ending so if you’re watching this video tomorrow i unfortunately the deal will already be over but uh for folks that are going to take advantage of that deal here today if you’re newer to the market start first with the fundamentals of stock market investing section first and then work your way up
From the top uh to the bottom if you’re a little more experienced in the market just start exactly how we’re going along here go through these 35 different lessons here that i’m teaching and then the bonus parts section is absolutely like jam-packed with value in there how i value grow stocks how to outperform the market uh valuation studies like we go we go in
Depth on these videos channel checks uh how i value based upon different growth rates moat um you know all those videos so i hope you guys enjoy that if you’re able to take advantage of that before it ends it’s ending in a few hours from now okay all right guys so first off the nasdaq’s down this year about 26 and a half percent okay awful i mean just awful that’s
A unbelievably you know this is where it pays to understand kind of the history of the stock market and understand how freakish some of these moves are okay now never mind that could get worse we could end up you know by the end of this year down 30 percent or down 40 percent right but nonetheless even if the stock market was to close for the rest of the year that
Would have been a historically awful year in the stock market right 26 and a half percent down and we can just pull up the history books and see how bad this really is okay if we look right this is over the past number of years this is basically my entire investing career here essentially okay we go back to 2018 it was a down year for the market but four percent
Down not uh 26 27 percent down okay uh 2011 was down 1.8 percent okay once again not like a 20 uh you know seven percent number okay so anytime in recent history this is an absolute disaster of a year in most years the nasdaq should be green in some years it’s going to be unbelievably grain right and it’s going to be um you know a very good return on investment
Now the somebody on that’s on the flip side could say you know we were due we were due for a massive downward year for the nasdaq and for the indexes in general right we had been having a good time we as far as the nasdaq goes we only had two red years in the last number of years here and when they were red they weren’t like awful red so we were due for a nasty
Year okay that’s what somebody says okay that’s fair but i also want to rewind i want to look a little further i want to look a little deeper what about years previous to this okay well in 2008 that was a year that was worse than this year that was a year in which the nasdaq finished down over 40 flipping flapjacking percent absolutely awful 2008 was in the stock
Market okay 2002 also a worse year for the nasdaq than this year has been so far down 31 and a half percent in 2002 2 000 also a worse year for the nasdaq than this particular year it was down 39 in 2000 okay so there you have three years essentially there in which the nasdaq did worse than essentially what’s going on right now in this market okay what about prior
To that well if we go from 83 all the way through 95 we’re gonna see we had four red years a down three percent year in 94 down uh almost 18 year in 1990 1987 was down about five percent 1984 was down 11.3 percent for the nasdaq okay so basically you know what’s the moral of story when it comes to this part here okay to recap we’ve only had three years in the past
40 years of the nasdaq that were worse than what this year is as of right now right and once again it could get even a little worse uh we’ll see or better um over the next few months right in those years with the 2008 financial crisis 2000 and 2002 tech bubble mess which was a whole situation where basically uh tech companies had little to no business let’s just call
It that we’re trading at some unbelievable valuations then simultaneously the bigger tech stocks were having trouble posting any sort of growth so it created a very uh ugly situation that’s how you got the tech bubble to have two years two years that were worse than this particular year okay so very very ugly situation that was and so it’s important to understand
That this is a freakish situation we’re going through this doesn’t happen all that often it does happen it is part of the market this will not be the last time you’re in your investing career especially if you’re planning on investing for the next 10 20 30 years this is not the last time you will see the nasdaq go down 27 a year you will see that happen again in
The future it is something that does happen it just happens very few and far between okay and that’s what that’s what’s the most important to understand about this it happens very few and far between okay and remember those are the end of the year numbers i just showed you there okay there was a lot of years where you had an immense amount of volatility but by the
Time that year it ended for instance the market had come back very nicely a good example of that was 2009 right in 2009 was a year in which you know if we pull that back up 2009 look at the market ended up having a great year for the nasdaq right but at the beginning of 2009 the nasdaq was a mess go back and look at the history books it was a mess in 2009 at the
Beginning of the first few months like the first two or three months were messy down big and then by the end of the year it ended up peaking out in incredibly nice game okay so that can happen as well okay now just like a human you know we can get very unhealthy we’re eating a bunch of snacks and cookies all the time and we’re not exercising or whatever and we’re
Just in unhealthy habits okay just like we can get very unhealthy at a given moment the stock market can get very unhealthy at a given moment okay and to be quite frank the stock market over the past few years has been loaded up on chips and cookies okay it’s a been in an extremely unhealthy state for the past basically two and a half to three years roughly okay
And here’s what essentially happened right and this is not normal this was a situation this is when rona came out very basically right and basically every single stock in the stock market crashed collapsed okay basically every single stock in the stock market got absolutely obliterated now not healthy not normal but it happened okay then we went through basically
April of 2020 all the way through you know basically the beginning part of 2021 we went through an incredible bull cycle this is a russell 2000 i pulled up here an incredible bull cycle that basically almost you could have owned almost any stock in the entire stock market and you made money and for a lot of stocks you made a ridiculous amount of money insane okay
Not healthy once again if you’re talking about a market that basically goes up in a straight line and the index basically doubles in a matter of um you know let’s call it less than a year not healthy not healthy but that’s what happened okay and now for the third showdown in the situation basically starting in november 2021 through today it’s basically been every
Stock in the stock market has basically gone down since november 2021 and many stocks have gone down massively we’re talking 30 40 50 60 70 80 some 90 drops in stocks also not healthy you’re in a very unhealthy market when you’re seeing things like this okay this is not a normal stock market this is not how the stock market usually acts okay it’s not you it’s not
Usual when you have a crash down a skyrocket up and a crash down okay that’s not a stock market acting as normal you’re going through a certain period of time where that is happening and this does happen in the stock market from time to time but it is very abnormal it’s very important for every investor to understand this okay and the reason this is so important is
Because as individual investors right as individual investors we what are the reasons we individually pick stocks why do we do this there’s a few reasons right money we want to make we want to try to outperform the market and make money right the one of the biggest keys that is overlooked from individual investors is we like to try to control our own fate okay
And we like to make our own moves and our own decisions out there and invest in what we want to invest in right and there’s a there’s a very empowering feeling when you are taking your own money and investing it where you want to invest it right and pick the five 10 15 stocks where you want to invest is it’s an incredible feeling that’s one of the feelings that
You know still to this day it drives me and after the success and after the money and the homes and the cars and all those things what still drives me is that feeling of power and not just like putting in a savings account or just like you know giving all my money to a financial advisor giving all my money to um you know it’s just an index fund or something like
That for some people that’s perfectly fine in respect to that but there’s a certain amount of us out there we don’t want to do that we have no interest in doing that we love the power of investing our money where we want to invest our money but it’s a very helpless feeling when you have the market crashing straight down going straight up and then crashing straight
Down we start to feel like oh we don’t really control our own fate at all we’re just uh you know basically the only way we can make money i guess is by the stock market skyrocketing and you know even if our companies are doing good shoot if the market’s all crashing and collapsing we have no chance in that market even if our company is executing their business
Model and so we start to feel very helpless and it hurts as an individual investor especially when it’s a long period of time that this has happened we’re talking about this has been going on for two and a half years now it’s not like it’s been just like two months if it’s like two months everybody can get over that when it’s a two and a half year span that you
Have to go through this i call it like um just tough and you know tough mentally to have to go through that as an individual investor because as individual individual investors we’re looking at companies and we’re thinking about where is this company revenues going over time where is its margins going to go over time where it’s net income you know what’s going on
With the business fundamentals over the coming years as an investor right traders can think about something else but as investors that’s what we think about but when we see our stocks just crashing regardless if the company’s executing the way we thought we’re going to do it’s a very helpless feeling and then if you know our stocks are skyrocketing just because the
Market’s going up it’s like okay you know cool but we would have liked that to happen regardless right and so that it’s a very very frustrating feeling but what i can tell you is do not get discouraged by this sort of market you’re in a freakish market and it will pass i 100 of 100 uh you know stand by that statement it will pass it is a freakish situation that
Sometimes you have to go through and it’s painful mentally but it will pass okay as with any situation you know it’s always darkest before the dawn and when you go through the vix the vix tells the whole story which the vix is a volatility index which is basically going to show you how crazy the stock market is at a given moment okay and if we look at this all the
Way back from 2000 and this isn’t this is the vex i pulled up for the sp 500 all the way back from 2000 all the way through you know right now currently okay there’s basically been three time periods of let’s call it intense volatility okay and if we go back to the two periods previous where there was intense volatility what do we see happens every single time
There’s then an elongated period of calmness in the market of chilling in the market of the stock market acting normal okay so we go back to the 2000 uh through 2002 situation you know extreme volatility in the market then that was followed up by many many years from basically 2003 all the way through about 08 right of very nice calm market that was actually really
Really good to invest in right then we got the great financial crisis out of nowhere right and mortgages and you know where we’re just being forgotten about and short sales and foreclosures and job losses and you know banks are going under left and right oh my gosh what a mess that was okay and we went through a period of a couple years of intense volatility from
Basically about you know 2008 2009 late late 08 is when it really started to get crazy so late 08 all the way through about 2011 intense volatility in the market and that was followed up by many many many years like eight years straight of just a pretty chill market you had a little craziness here and there summer 15 i remember that was a little a little wild i
Remember uh december 2018 that was a little wild but outside of those few time periods it was actually a relatively chill market right and so now we’ve gone through another what’s called extraordinary vix situation and so what do you think is going to happen in 2023 and beyond right well if i had to put my money somewhere i’m going to say we’re probably going to
Go through a pretty nice period of calmness in the market that would be my guess okay no maybe this time is different and maybe we just stay insane vicks for years and years to go in the future and maybe we go through 10 years straight of you know insane volatility in the market i wouldn’t bet on it you can that’s fine i just uh it’s not a bet that usually pays
Off you go through these time periods they usually last two to three years and then you get you know three to you know eight years potentially of a pretty calm market and uh a normal investing environment in an environment where it starts to come back to company fundamentals because when you’re going through these you know let’s call periods of insane volatility
It’s no longer about what your company’s doing it’s no longer about the revenues and those sorts of things when you’re in that sort of market everybody’s just paying attention to macro macroeconomics they’re paying attention to geopolitical events and all those sorts of things and that’s what drives the whole stock market when you’re in those time periods of you know
Insane volatility when you’re in these time periods the story goes back to okay what’s going on with this company’s revenues what’s going on with their bottom line what’s going on with their cash flows and all those things start to matter again okay and so we will get back there and it’s going to happen sooner rather than later now what’s the risk out there for us
Okay there’s kind of two main risk in my opinion this is the biggest one china taiwan absolutely a real risk and a massive risk if something was to happen there guess what vix is going to go crazy and we’ll have another you know six to 12 months of insane volatility in the market if that was to happen and get a nasty obviously you know a lot of our tech companies
Have a lot of chips that are made in taiwan it’s very important and you know a lot of people are looking at that as what would happen in that sort of situation and for the stock market from the u.s side they actually look at this as a bigger risk than actually the russia ukraine situation russia ukraine a little bigger for europe i think than maybe potentially this
But for the u.s stock market a few u.s companies this is actually a bigger deal and so that’s a risk we’ll see what happens there but there’s no doubt if you know things were to get really ugly there there’s no doubt we would go through another period of insane volatility which would basically put us into three years plus of insane volatility and you very rarely
Get that but you never know that’s a absolute real risk out there in the market okay the other i would call it smaller risks of market is large cap stocks now the good news for large cap stocks is they’ve gotten much more in line with kind of where they should be to be quite frank but there’s no doubt that there could be a little more pain for large caps ahead
Okay and put us more into let’s call it a 14 to 15 range for forward ps is from yarndini research by the way put us into maybe 14 to 15 range something in there then you start to feel really really comfortable i feel much more comfortable in the market now than before and the reason being is now we’re at least in realistic ranges versus before we’re in uh what’s
Called insane ranges right when we’re up here uh i mean you knew the index has had to come down that’s just bottom line you knew we had a fall because we’re just trading too high like you’re not going to trade up there forever and ever that’s unrealistic like usually large caps are going to trade if you just pull up this chart historically they’re going to trade it
Anywhere between about 12 to about you know 16 17. and so the more you get above let’s call it a 16-17 the more likely you’re going to come down in the market right if you start trading at a 19 a 20 a 21 a 22 you know you know it’s just a it’s like it’s a you know ticking time bomb situation you know it’s just tick tick tick tick tick in the sooner or later we’re
Going to come down right you know what else is tick tick tick and this is why i’m investing so heavily in these talks the last few months and plan to continue to is smalls and mids this is a tick tick tick situation but on the upside they will not stay down here forever this is unsustainable as large caps trading at 22 plus ford p was unsustainable you know these
Stocks trading at 11 and a 12 uh forward ps this is unsustainable and they will go through a uh let’s just call it a major rise and the thing that’s interesting about these stocks is these could go on an epic run let’s say in 23 for instance and if those stocks went on an epic run it doesn’t mean the indexes necessarily have to go up a ton or large caps go up a
Ton because these don’t move the market okay let’s be quite clear these stocks don’t move the market the biggest the big dog companies have gotten so big now that they basically can make the whole market you know as far as the indexes go up or down or look good or not right because apple google microsoft amazon uh you know metal nvidia all those sorts of companies
Have gotten so large tesla that they drive the indexes but these babies could skyrocket it doesn’t mean necessarily the indexes would skyrocket and i think that’s important to remember and this is why i’ve been investing so heavily in these type of stocks you just it’s unrealistic you know they’re not going to stay down there forever forever and ever that’s just
Not the way it works and sooner or later they’ll come back into their normal ranges and they will rise quite rapidly they’ve just got to getting hit with uh you know the wall of worry let’s call it that okay so for all investors out there keep your head up okay as mr pox said keep your head up uh you know this shall pass as with all things in the market and um you
Know we’ll get into a normalized environment and wherever your company fundamentals are going that will matter again and we’ll be out of this whole macro mess of oh my gosh oil’s spiking so the whole market has to tank and oh my gosh this happens the whole market has to tank or oh now we can skyrocket to the moon um you know and i’m looking very forward to it as
An individual investor so yeah hope you guys enjoyed this video as always i appreciate you joining me once again there’s only a few hours left on the becoming master of stock market sale if you want to take advantage of that before it ends that will be pinned comment down there much love and have a great day
Transcribed from video
The Stock Market Is On the Verge. Get Ready! By Financial Education