FT statistics journalist Federica Cocco looks at what the data can teach us about distancing, demographics, culture and testing. #covid #pandemic #datajournalism #coronavirus #covid19 #financialtimes
Governments around the world are asking themselves how they can stop the spread of the corona virus and they’re looking to italy at the center of the pandemic for lessons deaths in italy have outstripped china and on the current trajectory the uk could find itself in the same situation in under two weeks the death rate in the us and in other european countries
Has also been growing so what can be done to stop the spread of the virus we’re going to be looking at social distancing demographics cultural factors and testing let’s start with social distancing after reaching 800 coronavirus deaths italy ordered a full lockdown meaning people couldn’t leave the house unless they had urgent work situations emergencies or health
Reasons in the uk the government has been ramping up social distancing advice the emphasis is on staying at home as much as possible and otherwise keeping two metres apart it’s a method that can dramatically reduce transmission and there’s hope that by flattening the curve there will be less stress on the health system there is a big but it relies on people taking
Heed of the advice now things are moving towards a full lockdown shopping the basic necessities as infrequently as possible one form of exercise a day for example a run walk or cycle alone or with members of your household any medical need to provide care or to help a vulnerable person and traveling to and from work but only whether this is absolutely necessary and
Cannot be done from home that’s all these are the only reasons you should leave your home age is a factor too it’s important to protect the elderly and the vulnerable one reason why italy may have suffered such a high death rate maybe because of its elderly population one in four italians are aged over 65 in the uk it’s less but it’s still a large proportion and we
Know that the elderly and those with underlying health conditions by far the most vulnerable that’s why in the uk those over 70 have been asked to self isolate for at least 12 weeks it could be crucial but it’s not that straightforward germany and japan also have large elderly populations and yet their death rate has been far lower there are also cultural factors
Italians like large gatherings and they are very tactile italian families are very tight-knit and it’s possible that the younger generations spread it to their grandparents but another cultural factor at play could be to what extent are people willing to follow the rules especially in the early days in britain people’s tendency to keep calm and carry on could be
Walking the country into trouble that’s why the uk government faced criticism for merely advising social distancing rather than ordering a full lockdown whatever the message is it needs to be loud and clear i must give the british people a very simple instruction you must stay at home and then there’s testing in the uk only people in need of hospitalization have
Been tested but the government is ramping things up the world health organization is advising aggressive testing to limit the infections a control experiment in the small town of voe near venice proved that mass testing can help stamp out to the virus there were two rounds of testing done in the first round of testing people with the virus including those with no
Symptoms were put in isolation there was then a second round of testing and a smaller number of infections were found also put in isolation proving that this can help stop transmission but other factors may be a play how the cause of death is counted genetics maybe even the climate southern italy has suffered less this is leading scientists to believe there may
Be high temperatures and humidity helped stop the spread perhaps the summer will bring some respite but the summer be too late if lessons are to be learned they need to be learned now
Transcribed from video
Coronavirus: learning urgent lessons from Italy | Crunched By Financial Times