GDP NUMBER IS WRONG According to Jerome Powell – US Q2 GDP + Earnings Discussion – Thur, July 28, 22

The US Q2 GDP number is wrong according to Jerome Powell. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell says this time might be different. The markets rose as expected on Wednesday on his comments, but how will the market react to USA GDP for Q2? If GDP is negative in Q2, does that mean we’re in a recession? And if not, why aren’t we in a recession? Get ready for a possible stock market crash from two quarters of negative GDP on Thursday, and get ready for another possibly downturn Friday as earnings season continues with Apple earnings and Amazon earnings.

Hi guys it’s stock curry and we’ve got to talk about what earnings were released on wednesday we’ve got to talk about what fed just did and what jerome powell said hold on for that one and then we’ve also got to talk about the q2 gdp coming out on thursday so let’s get into it in yesterday’s video i said this i think it’s very very likely we could see the nasdaq

Up between three and five percent by the close on wednesday and sure enough the nasdaq jumped four percent on wednesday now part of that was due to the positive earnings that came out tuesday night and then part of that was also due to what the fed did on wednesday so let’s talk about what the fed did first the federal reserve raised interest rates by 0.75 percent

On wednesday now this was in line with expectations and since we did not get a 1 interest rate hike the market went up breathing a sigh of relief i also want to point out that the fed interest rate is now at the benchmark rate of 2.25 to 2.5 percent the benchmark rate is the rate that the fed sees as neutral meaning they’re not helping the economy and they’re

Not hurting the economy it’s just a flat neutral rate which will provide normal growth now that was all fine and dandy that was expected but what was unexpected is what jerome powell said holy smokes put on your seatbelt because this is crazy first of all regarding future rate hikes jerome powell said that their number one goal is to get inflation down to two

Percent he said they still plan to go full strength on reducing their balance sheet in september and that the market has absorbed the reduced balance sheet impact so far regarding how much they might raise interest rates he did say that while he does expect this to be the last 75 basis point rate hike that a higher rate hike is still on the table for september and

They are going to have to look at the data to determine how much they might reduce interest rates in the future now the one thing that he did say is that so far they’ve done a really good job of forecasting what they were actually going to do but now that interest rates are at this benchmark neutral rate they’re going to stop forecasting their rate hike so much

So all of the future rate hikes from the fed are going to be a lot more uncertain and will probably have a lot bigger shocks to the market jerome powell was also asked on multiple occasions about a slowdown in the economy and a possible recession the one thing he said is that while we are seeing a slowdown in the economy the jobless claims remain strong he said

The labor market is moving back into balance he said that because we have a strong labor market that even though it’s slowing a little bit labor supply has not been slowing so overall he does think they can get the job market back to neutral without causing a significant downturn in the economy now specifically asked about gdp being negative in q2 and whether or

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Not that would mean that we were in a recession this is where jerome powell said a lot of really weird things the first thing he said is that in some cases gdp has been negative but the labor market has been strong and in those cases the economy has been just fine so jerome ball said even if q2 gdp is negative because the labor market is strong the economy should

Be just fine we’re going to get through this no problem no issues and nothing to worry about he was asked how much of a slowdown would be acceptable before they would stop raising interest rates and his answer was essentially that because the job market is so strong they don’t really care about the job market right now they feel like that’s strong we’re good on

That so they’re just gonna keep raising interest rates until we get down to a two percent inflation if that causes a slowdown in the economy so be it jerome powell said a slowdown in the economy is necessary and a good thing in order to get inflation down later jerome powell was asked well if there is a slowdown in the economy wouldn’t that put us into a recession

And jerome powell’s answer was and i quote this time may be different really jerome pal i mean everybody knows you don’t say this time is different that is the biggest lie on wall street is that this time is different history repeats itself this time is never different man i don’t know if jerome powell is lying or if he’s just clueless but that was a really odd

Thing for him to say then jerome powell got even weirder with what he said he was asked if the q2 gdp print on thursday was negative would that mean that we are in a recession and jerome powell’s answer was it doesn’t seem like we’re in a recession because the labor market is strong so it makes you question the gdp number he later clarifies and straight up says

That if q2 gdp is negative that it might be wrong what jerome powell’s telling us to ignore q2 gdp if it’s negative because it’s wrong i mean what is this guy smoking does he honestly think that we’re just gonna ignore two quarters in a row of negative gdp growth come on man nobody is going to believe that two quarters of negative gdp is just wrong and that we

Should ignore it i mean come on i get the job market is strong we get that but we also know that once a recession starts layoffs balloon layoffs skyrocket and that’s what makes paper recessions turn into real recessions this exact same thing happened in 2008 100 exactly the same i’m talking word for word does nobody read history books around here does nobody look

At the past i think the markets are going to go down on thursday the weird things jerome powell said it was like somebody in complete denial of the reality i don’t think it’s going to be good at all and let me tell you this also i don’t think apple and amazon earnings are going to be good either let’s get into the earnings and i’ll explain why first of all meta

Which is facebook they reported they missed on earnings missed on revenue and forecast a bad q2 the stock was down five percent after hours and rightfully so maida did bring the stock market down pretty significantly initially but then a few other companies reported and the market overall came up a little bit but so far it’s not looking good for earnings even

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More concerning mark zuckerberg said that an economic downturn is here so made is going to have to do a lot more with a lot less meda just joins a long list of growing companies who are warning that we are in an economic downturn and things are going to get a lot worse now on a positive note ford beat earnings and beat revenue and then reiterated their forward

Guidance ford stock was up over six percent after hours as well as it should be ford had amazing earnings best buy on the other hand not so much best buy just cut their forward guidance saying that they are having a lot of pressure from inflation best buy cutters forecast for both the second quarter and the year as a whole and they said same store sales are going

To decline by about 11 and this is why i think we’re gonna get bad earnings from apple and amazon you have to keep in mind that we’ve already had forecast warnings from walmart target now best buy pretty much every single retailer is giving profit warnings because the fact is people are spending all of their money on food and gas and they don’t have money left over

To go buy things that they don’t really need such as cell phones and laptops and what does apple sell cell phones and laptops i think especially this profit warning from best buy is a huge red flag that apple is about to report a terrible terrible quarter i also think amazon is going to report another bad quarter because the q1 for amazon was not good i looked at

All the prime day sales thing they did and i was not impressed i didn’t even shop prime day and a lot of news articles came out saying that people should skip it i don’t think amazon is going to report a good q2 either i think both of those companies are going to have earnings misses and no matter what happens to the market during the day on thursday i think both

Those talks are going to go down after hours on thursday and i think that’s going to bring the entire stock market down on friday now despite the slowdown in the economy and all the negative news we’ve had from a lot of the earnings we did get some good news today coming out of the senate the senate announced a deal on a reconciliation bill with the tax climate

And energy provisions this bill is going to increase corporate taxes raising an additional 700 billion dollars and it’s also going to invest 400 billion dollars into alternative energy and climate related programs so overall this bill will reduce the federal deficit by 300 billion dollars and it also provides a significant boost to clean energy stocks which is why

We saw quite a few clean energy stocks rise after the market close on wednesday now that’s everything that happened on wednesday let’s talk about what’s going to happen on thursday q2 gdp is being reported thursday at 8 30 a.m eastern time which is one hour before the market opens economists expect that the economy grew just slightly in the second quarter although

Overall the entire economic range runs from negative 1.5 percent to positive 0.8 percent so we’ll have to see where in that range we actually fall now i will let you know that the atlanta fed’s gdp now tracker actually estimates that q2 gdp is negative 1.2 percent and keep in mind that in q1 the atlanta fed’s gdp now tracker was actually predicting a slight increase

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In gdp for q1 and in reality we had a negative 1.6 q1 gdp so now if the atlanta fed is predicting a negative gdp for q2 what is the actual q2 gdp gonna come in at i don’t know nobody knows we’re gonna find out thursday at 8 30 a.m eastern time i will tell you that i personally believe it’s gonna be negative between the weird statements coming out of the white

House the weird things jerome powell said today i really think it’s gonna be negative now we’ll have to see what happens if it’s negative then despite what the white house says despite what jerome powell says despite all the bs trying to tell you not to worry the stock market is not gonna like that and i’ve got a feeling the stock market’s gonna crash on thursday

If we do in fact get that negative gdp print and oh my gosh if the stock market crashes on thursday due to a negative gdp and apple and amazon report bad earnings thursday after the close watch out because all of the games we got on wednesday are gonna get wiped out and we could finish the week in the red by three or four percent so don’t think that wednesday’s

Big run up was safety not at all it all comes down to the q2 gdp for thursday and it all comes down to apple and amazon earnings for friday so stay on your toes we’ve got a lot more wild extreme and insane market volatility coming up oh my gosh we need to get a wwe announcer in here to keep up with this market because it is insane we are about to get the smackdown

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GDP NUMBER IS WRONG According to Jerome Powell – US Q2 GDP + Earnings Discussion – Thur, July 28, 22 By Stock Curry – We Profit Day and Night

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