GDP NUMBER IS WRONG According to Jerome Powell - US Q2 GDP + Earnings Discussion

The US Q2 GDP number is wrong according to Jerome Powell. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell says this time might be different. The markets rose as expected on Wednesday on his comments, but how will the market react to USA GDP for Q2? If GDP is negative in Q2, does that mean we’re in a recession? And if not, why aren’t we in a recession? Get ready for a possible stock market crash from two quarters of negative GDP on Thursday, and get ready for another possibly downturn Friday as earnings season continues with Apple earnings and Amazon earnings.

Hi guys it’s stock curry and we’ve got to talk about what earnings were released on wednesday we’ve got to talk about what fed just did and what jerome powell said hold on for that one and then we’ve also got to talk about the q2 gdp coming out on thursday so let’s get into it in yesterday’s video i said this i think it’s very very likely we could see the nasdaq

Up between three and five percent by the close on wednesday and sure enough the nasdaq jumped four percent on wednesday now part of that was due to the positive earnings that came out tuesday night and then part of that was also due to what the fed did on wednesday so let’s talk about what the fed did first the federal reserve raised interest rates by 0.75 percent

On wednesday now this was in line with expectations and since we did not get a 1 interest rate hike the market went up breathing a sigh of relief i also want to point out that the fed interest rate is now at the benchmark rate of 2.25 to 2.5 percent the benchmark rate is the rate that the fed sees as neutral meaning they’re not helping the economy and they’re

Not hurting the economy it’s just a flat neutral rate which will provide normal growth now that was all fine and dandy that was expected but what was unexpected is what jerome powell said holy smokes put on your seatbelt because this is crazy first of all regarding future rate hikes jerome powell said that their number one goal is to get inflation down to two

Percent he said they still plan to go full strength on reducing their balance sheet in september and that the market has absorbed the reduced balance sheet impact so far regarding how much they might raise interest rates he did say that while he does expect this to be the last 75 basis point rate hike that a higher rate hike is still on the table for september and

They are going to have to look at the data to determine how much they might reduce interest rates in the future now the one thing that he did say is that so far they’ve done a really good job of forecasting what they were actually going to do but now that interest rates are at this benchmark neutral rate they’re going to stop forecasting their rate hike so much

So all of the future rate hikes from the fed are going to be a lot more uncertain and will probably have a lot bigger shocks to the market jerome powell was also asked on multiple occasions about a slowdown in the economy and a possible recession the one thing he said is that while we are seeing a slowdown in the economy the jobless claims remain strong he said

The labor market is moving back into balance he said that because we have a strong labor market that even though it’s slowing a little bit labor supply has not been slowing so overall he does think they can get the job market back to neutral without causing a significant downturn in the economy now specifically asked about gdp being negative in q2 and whether or

Not that would mean that we were in a recession this is where jerome powell said a lot of really weird things the first thing he said is that in some cases gdp has been negative but the labor market has been strong and in those cases the economy has been just fine so jerome ball said even if q2 gdp is negative because the labor market is strong the economy should

Be just fine we’re going to get through this no problem no issues and nothing to worry about he was asked how much of a slowdown would be acceptable before they would stop raising interest rates and his answer was essentially that because the job market is so strong they don’t really care about the job market right now they feel like that’s strong we’re good on

That so they’re just gonna keep raising interest rates until we get down to a two percent inflation if that causes a slowdown in the economy so be it jerome powell said a slowdown in the economy is necessary and a good thing in order to get inflation down later jerome powell was asked well if there is a slowdown in the economy wouldn’t that put us into a recession

And jerome powell’s answer was and i quote this time may be different really jerome pal i mean everybody knows you don’t say this time is different that is the biggest lie on wall street is that this time is different history repeats itself this time is never different man i don’t know if jerome powell is lying or if he’s just clueless but that was a really odd

Thing for him to say then jerome powell got even weirder with what he said he was asked if the q2 gdp print on thursday was negative would that mean that we are in a recession and jerome powell’s answer was it doesn’t seem like we’re in a recession because the labor market is strong so it makes you question the gdp number he later clarifies and straight up says

That if q2 gdp is negative that it might be wrong what jerome powell’s telling us to ignore q2 gdp if it’s negative because it’s wrong i mean what is this guy smoking does he honestly think that we’re just gonna ignore two quarters in a row of negative gdp growth come on man nobody is going to believe that two quarters of negative gdp is just wrong and that we

Should ignore it i mean come on i get the job market is strong we get that but we also know that once a recession starts layoffs balloon layoffs skyrocket and that’s what makes paper recessions turn into real recessions this exact same thing happened in 2008 100 exactly the same i’m talking word for word does nobody read history books around here does nobody look

At the past i think the markets are going to go down on thursday the weird things jerome powell said it was like somebody in complete denial of the reality i don’t think it’s going to be good at all and let me tell you this also i don’t think apple and amazon earnings are going to be good either let’s get into the earnings and i’ll explain why first of all meta

Which is facebook they reported they missed on earnings missed on revenue and forecast a bad q2 the stock was down five percent after hours and rightfully so maida did bring the stock market down pretty significantly initially but then a few other companies reported and the market overall came up a little bit but so far it’s not looking good for earnings even