STOCKS HAVE NOT TREATED ME WELL THE PAST 6 MONTHS!
Well howdy there folks and welcome into today’s video first off uh my voice i understand so basically how it works is every million dollars plus you lose in the stock market um your voice gets twice as deep and it gets bass boost okay but uh nonetheless guys i want to get into a serious subject today you know um i’ve lost over a million dollars in the past six
Months and i think this type of video that i think is needed at a time like this in the market and i want to describe kind of you know how you get to that place where you’re down you know seven figures in a matter of six months right because it can happen pretty darn quick in the stock market and so we’ll go through this i’ll give those different points on why i
Believe this has happened secondly what we’re going to talk about is when does the pain end which i think is something that a lot of people are wondering like how much longer are we talking three months six months nine months 12 months 18 months like how much longer does this vicious pain last that we’ve kind of had in the market and so we’ll discuss that as well
So yeah i hope you guys enjoy this as always thanks for joining me now first off i just want to address something throughout the top it’s actually not that hard for me to address um something like this we’re talking about like um you know being down a lot of money in the stock market and the reason being that like one i’ve been the stock market for a long long
Time right it’s like four going to 14 years now and so i’ve come to expect that i’m going to get absolutely shredded in the market during certain time periods like shred it right and i’ve just i’ve come to grips with that a long time ago and so i never i never like get down about it like oh man i’m so depressed because i’m down on money or something like that like
That’s just a life i live that’s a life i chose and as i say you know um you make your bed and lay in it or whatever that’s saying goes right and so um i never throw myself a pity party i never like um you know get down about it or something like that like that’s just part of the that’s just part of this game i’m gonna you know as an individual stock picker there’s
Gonna be some times where i’m just i’m just getting torn up and this is the sort of market especially the past six months where i’ve just been absolutely torn up i think it started kind of in the back half of 21 but in terms of the real kind of vicious part it’s really been the past six months okay and so yeah i never put myself in a victim mentality or feel bad
For me i throw a pity party because at the end of the day you know i’ll get back to those days where it’s like oh i made six figures today oh i made a quarter mil today oh i made a half mil today oh i made you know 700 000 this week like we’ll get back to those time periods um you just got to go through kind of the pain to get back those time periods okay so let’s
Go ahead and jump into this we’ll talk about why i believe this has happened and then we’ll get into obviously um how long i think this is going to last i also need to remember to let you guys know why my voice is uh messed up in this video so we’ll get into that as well and also if you want to check out my uh crypto partner ftxus check out the first link in the
Description down there they got a pretty awesome deal right now where you can get up to a hundred dollars in free crypto signing up with an account using my code holy smokers okay as your your referral code there so first thing is we gotta understand the market’s gone very very risk off and i’m gonna show you some slides here in just a minute on how insanely risk
Off this market’s really gone risk off what that means essentially is investors in the market don’t want to take risk and usually what the market is driven by for the most part is wall street money right and so if you get in a sort of market where wall street doesn’t want to take risk they’re not going to buy anything that’s higher growth anything that loses money
Those stocks are just going to be out of favor right and i own several of those stocks that would fit that criteria yeah they’re high growth but they’re also seen as riskier companies um you know by the market doesn’t mean they are riskier it’s just that’s the way they’re seen by the market right it doesn’t mean the market’s right or i’m right it’s just that’s the
Way it is and that’s the way you kind of got to understand in the market right and so it doesn’t matter if they have a good balance sheet doesn’t matter if they’re going to turn to profitability in the next year or two at the end of the day i own several companies that as of right now are not profitable and if you have revenue growth uh you know wall street just
Doesn’t care about that story right now you know that we go back a couple years ago yeah was it phenomenal especially uh really like a year and a half ago if you had the the 20 30 50 type revenue growth investors were all over that right wall street was all over that that’s not the market we’re in anymore right and um you know in that sort of market a lot of these
Stocks falter and so money gets rotated from a lot of the seen as riskier stocks right to a lot of what could be seen as safety stocks for instance like an apple stock right uh energy stocks are seen as like safety stocks right now which they’re not really safety stocks but you know there’s a commoditized business and they go through some really really tough cycles
And ask anybody that’s a um you know an oil or gas investor and they’ll they’ll tell you the honest the truth around that those stocks are not safety stocks but the market sees those as safety stocks right now right and so markets kind of flooded to a lot of those sorts of stocks right now and so my stocks in in this wall of wall of worry that’s in front of us which
Is inflation inflation’s gone insane which is uh around obviously how many times the fed’s gonna raise rates which is around uh potential recession all the the the big wall of worry that’s in front of us right now right russia ukraine obviously uh commodities going up all those sorts of things that’s not going to be the sort of market where a lot of the stocks i own
Right we’re going to do well we’re just in a complete risk on a market at the moment right if we go ahead and pull up i want to pull up a few of these stocks and the reason being is these stocks are usually seen as safety or stocks right look at something like a paypal this stock’s down 61 percent in the past six months 61 percent like it’s paypal and so if you see
A stock like paypal down that much you understand like a lot of my stocks they’re going to go through some some rough sledding if paypal if investors in wall street don’t want to buy paypal and send this stock down 61 percent in six months like imagine what happens to some of these other stocks right now so i’m playing shopify right 58 down in the past six months
58 in six months for shopify netflix this dog is down 46 in the past six months these are some of the biggest of the big companies in the world like literally some of the biggest in the world and they just are have gotten absolutely shredded in this market adobe adobe stock really this stock is down over 30 in the past six months isn’t it an incredible move and
So you know meta what about meta i got that one too facebook thirty five percent the past six months met as i in my opinion one of the safest stocks on the market whereas balance sheet and its customer base just continues to use the product all those sorts of things evaluation’s insanely low p of 15 on this stock forward p of lower than that uh great opportunity
Long term but but this sort of market it doesn’t want anything uh that that is seen as kind of a even remotely risky right and so that’s how you get those stocks to go down that much and so you know for some of the stocks i hold man you know it’s tough sledding out there right it’s very very tough sledding in a risk-off market where investors just don’t want to
Pay anything for for growth companies in all those companies went through all those are profitable uh companies right and they just they got they got nothing right second reason is some of my companies have missed earnings um so which means essentially like okay so we just went through the fact that the market doesn’t want to take any risk rained out right now
Imagine you miss your your earnings uh revenue numbers or you miss guidance right that’s just another flood out of those sorts of stocks right and so in this sort of market you need to be almost perfect to get any respect right now the only reason apple stock’s been holding up so well is because they reported perfect last two quarters like literally you couldn’t
Say anything and i mean anything bad about apple’s last two quarters and that’s the only reason that stock is held up if it wasn’t for the fact that they reported literally perfect quarters they would have fallen as well i’ve seen companies report good earnings and get damaged heavily fall 20 30 40 right and so in this sort of market if you’re not coming through
With perfection you better be ready for a big slap okay a will smith type slap okay and that’s exactly what has happened in this market where you know a lot of these companies especially that i own could have missed a revenue number or missed a guidance number and just you know folks are like you know i’m out of that stock and so that’s the sort of market we’re
In right now where you if you’re not coming through with perfection you say bye bye that’s all i have to say about that okay the second reason third reason up here retail has win buy buy out of this market right and especially if we talk about you know let’s let’s reference a couple a few names here that i’ve been investing very heavily in for the past you know
Six to 12 months a tattoo chef right denture chef is a company that went spack right so never had the wall street support from the beginning so the only folks that have really supported that stock have for the most part been retail right well the issue is if retail all leaves the market uh who you got left support in that stock other than maybe me at that point
In time right wall street hasn’t come to that baby yet they they will whenever the market goes back risk on again but right now we’re not in that sort of market so if you have retail all saying buy selling out their shares right it’s it’s hard to get the buying pressure on the other side to fulfill that so the stock price just kind of ends up floundering and just
Going down and down down right until you get to back to that risk on moment think about a stock like honest they wouldn’t they went public in my opinion at the worst time possible right around may of 2021 when all the retail hype and all the excitement in the market was already starting to fade and everything was starting to you know uh go down right and that’s a
Stock i obviously been buying a lot of the past six to 12 months but specifically the past six months i’ve been adding a ton of shares and it’s just continued to get damaged every share i bought an honest is down i i bought the dip i bought the deb i bought the dip i bought the dip and every single time i bought the dip that one just continues to go down it doesn’t
Have retail support and it doesn’t have wall street support so it’s it’s in no man’s land right now obviously for somebody like myself that believes that stocks going to 20 plus over the next few years and is getting pick up shares at four or five dollars um you know that’s very very attractive but we can’t deny the fact that in the short term that stock just has
Almost no hope until we go risk on market or they get to profitability right and so you know this is just kind of what what happens in the market oatley oatley’s a stock i’ve been buying very heavily more toward the past three months um in in that stocks just every single share i’ve bought votely is down down down right it’s a money loser it’s a huge revenue growth
Opportunity it’s a huge business growth opportunity but for an oatly right it doesn’t have wall street support yet and it retails go on bye-bye out of the stock market and let me show you some numbers kind of around this so you can kind of get a picture of of you know how how rough it’s kind of gotten for for retail right so obviously a lot of retail got into the
Market in late 2020 and early 2021 right and like the first like basically second half of 2020 in the first half of 2021 and the reason being is a lot of people were making a lot of money in the market it attracted a lot of folks people were at home um you know everybody wanted to become a stock trader or whatever and that’s just like the period we kind of went
Through right it was the closest thing the tech bubble we’ve had well margin debt it you know it just kind of spiked up throughout 2021 essentially right and it hit a peak actually in november at 918 million dollars of basically margin debt that was outstanding now something important to understand is as the stock market grows and grows over time and there’s more
Money in the stock market you should expect there to be more money in in margin that essentially that’s just the way the law you know the numbers end up working at the end of the day if you have a bunch more money in the market the amount of money on margin is going to be elevated right substantially and so if we take a peek here we’re at 911 million dollars in
Margin on august in august of 2021 and those numbers has been falling and falling and falling especially obviously this year down to 8 29 then it spiked up a little bit to 8 35 now in at the end of march we’re at 7.99 where’s april going to be 750 775 could be the lowest in in quite some time and basically how this works is as um retail gets hit in the market right
Uh you know folks just aren’t as likely to go on margin because they’re getting margin calls or they’re just uh been hurt bad and i take it back to a situation my worst year in the stock market ever by far actually um was 2015 and there was a year in which i got into a lot of short-term trading i got into uh like what i kind of went away away from everything that
Made me successful and i started messing around with margin a lot and there was one point where i had you know um fifty percent of my account balance was was margin money right and by the end of 2015 zero was margin money um and i lost a substantial amount of money that that year was my worst year ever in the stock market by mile from a psychological perspective
And from just a you know getting shredded in the market i mean really shred it like money that was lost that was that you know it took me several years to to get back to to higher levels essentially right and so that’s kind of the way the way it works in the market now the interesting thing about margin so first off 99.9 of people shouldn’t be ever even engaging
In margin um but the interesting thing about margin is usually people get into margin when when the market’s kind of at all time highs or you know there’s great feelings around the market and usually people don’t want to do any margin when the market’s low and the market’s been damaged and actually it should work the opposite way if the market’s at all-time highs
You should actually be very very afraid of margin and if the market’s uh down substantially you know if you’re gonna do margin that’s a more attractive time to do margin than the other way because the other way you can just get absolutely you know slammed right and so and if we look at this here december 2018 it was a phenomenal time to be a buyer of stocks and i
See i was a one that was buying stocks very heavily during that time and uh other than right now that was a time period i’ve been the most invested in in many many years and so you know a 554 mill we had dropped down to in terms of margin debt that was outstanding from 665 where you entered the year at and so this was a situation where as people got shredded in the
Market and just tore up tore up the amount of people that wanted to do margins just went down and down and down the amount of money they had on margin just went down and down down i mean you had margin calls coming in and that was just something that obviously heavily damaged investors during that time and um you know that that’s a very similar situation we have
Going on now i wouldn’t be surprised at all if if april numbers are down more and we’ll just have to see how obviously all that plays out there margin i think it’s always an important thing to kind of keep an eye on from the market standpoint okay no let’s talk about um you know kind of what i see playing out here as far as the markets and um you know when does
A pain end in the kind of the two scenarios i see most realistic let me talk you guys through that by the way if you’re wondering why my voice is messed up today a couple days ago i was already like had i was starting to lose my voice and then we did millennial money and ended up being like an hour and a half show and uh man i just did my voice in so my voice is
Like done now at this point in time okay so that’s why i you know i might sound a little different some two scenarios i see first is a risk on in the second half of 2022 now this is what wall street has been talking about the whole time so going into this year was very very interesting in january listening to um you know folks on wall street that would go on cnbc
All them kind of telegraphed this move of you know first half of the year is going to be very volatile and rough and tough slatting the second half of the year is going to be is going to be much better right and it’s just you know they all telegraph that move i remember i’d watch cnbc i always like to in terms of when i actually watch the nbc i watch it mainly in
December and january because i like to kind of see what people are talking about and it’s kind of all coming to fruition but at the end of the day when you think about wall street right if they all think a certain way that’s what’s going to end up happening so if they’re all saying uh yeah i’m not going to be too um you know risk on in the market the first half of
The year shoot that’s the way the market’s going to end up being like if that’s how they all end up feeling and they don’t want to take risk even if stock prices get slashed they’re not going to do it they’re they’re going to end up being in a situation where they’re just going to hold cash they’re not going to be actively out there bidding up stocks right and
If they are investing any stocks they’re going to invest in what is seen as the safety stocks that’s what ends up happening right but the whole time i’ve heard them talk they always have talked about the second half of the year is going to be much better than the first half of the year and this is from the people that are more bullish than bearish and people that
Are a little more bearish than bullish um that’s the way most of them have talked this entire time and so naturally if you know that sticks then end up you know the the second half of the year will will be when things start coming together also i think there’s going to be something that plays out in the next one to two months that i think is very very big is the
Rate of increase in inflation will start slowing so in i’ve explained this a million times and i think everybody you know 99 of my people understand this now but for the one percent that don’t what that means essentially is the you know let’s say you’re growing eight percent inflation also you know eight and a half percent also comes down to seven and a half
Percent and then six and a half percent and then five percent and i think that’ll be a big psychological thing to see the rate of increase starting to fall and so although you’re still going to have inflation pretty darn high inflation in my opinion it’s going to be that rate of increase that’s going to start falling and main reason is comps are obviously really
Really tough year over year when it comes to inflation if you’re trying to get that that rate increase and so i think when the market sees that it’s going to be big for the psychology of the market and folks saying okay inflation’s starting to come down we’re starting to get to realistic levels okay so that’s one scenario i see playing out the second scenario i
See playing out right and this is all this would be more pain for quite a while which i wouldn’t necessarily mind it because this is just a year like i’ve always i’ve just said like 2022 is a year for me where i just plow money into stocks that’s that’s what i’m doing this year um you know some years i buy real estate some years i might hold more cash this year
For me i’m just like give me stocks give me stocks give me stocks i’m just plowing in the money right and that’s my plan for this basically this entire year so but number two would be a major recession hits and we don’t go risk on until 2023 right so that would be a scenario where you know let’s say real estate starts to get hit jobs start to be lost and we go
Into a real recession in either the summer time or the fall time and that would be a situation where the market still wouldn’t want to go risk on no the the market would go risk on before the recession is over so do keep that in mind that’s the way it plays out every single time the recession can still be going on and the market already goes risk on and that that
Screws with people’s minds in a big way because they’re like wait a minute we’re in a recession right now the stock shouldn’t be going up what is going on and and it’s just the market’s always trying to play out like six months into the future essentially and that’s the way wall street thinks wall street’s usually think about six months in the future and so if
You even have a scenario where you have a recession um you know stocks would get hit initially but then uh they would start going risk on before uh the recession’s even done which once again it blows people’s minds but that’s the way it works out every single time i’ve tracked stock market for a long long time now i’ve been doing this for a long long time and every
Single time that’s the way it plays out and including and obviously the 2020 situation where stocks were coming back so fast so strong and people are like what in the world how are stocks coming back to strong like we got the world economy shut down and uh you go back to the 0809 recession you know we still were tough economic times in all of 2009 and into 2010
And there was a situation where the market bought them in february 09 kind of premature but that’s the way the market works and it goes risk on so that would be a scenario that takes longer to play and we wouldn’t go risk on until 23. so as far as me as a long-term investor either way works for me um you know if we go risk on in the second half and a lot of these
Start stocks start to move great um you know if we wait till 23 to go risk on that’s fine that’s just a longer time for me to add more ownership in companies that i love for the long term guys hope you enjoyed this video as always and just kind of transparency and me trying to cover you know kind of what’s going on in my perspective out there make sure you check
Out that first link in the description ftxus and get up to a hundred dollars in crypto free much love as always and have a great day
Transcribed from video
How I lost $1,000,000+ in Stocks in 6 months By Financial Education