How i screwed up BAD with Apple Q4 Numbers! – Bad Jeremy!

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Good day subscribers thank you so much for joining me today i am jeremy this is a financial education channel and today we’re talking about how did i screw up apples q4 numbers so freaking bad i was way off if you guys recall last week i posted a video about what i believed apple’s q4 numbers were i had them way above what the analysts were expecting and whatnot and

Boy was i wrong holy smokes i was way off way way way off so today’s video we’re gonna dive into in see how did i screw up so bad one of the mistakes i made when analyzing apple for this quarter and i believe this video will help you guys immensely in kind of your thought process i’m thinking hmm maybe i should have approached it this way or that way because a lot

More can be learned sometimes from a mistake then actually something that was successful so i just thought this is a great opportunity let’s go ahead and get right into this guy’s so first up we’re looking at what apple report it for numbers for their q4 so we’re going to read through the first couple lines here we’re starting at cupertino california apple today

Announced financial results first fiscal 2016 fourth quarter ended september 24 2016 first off right off the back there the quarter end at september 24 that’s something if i did more research on i should have known where is i thought the quarter was ending september 30th so right off the bat we have six days less of revenue profits all that stuff then i was even

Expecting now that still doesn’t make up for how big of a difference i had but it still matters when a company like apple with how much revenue they would have coming in from the new iphone and stuff like that this is huge i call this lazy jeremy lazy jeremy syndrome and this is why you guys have to be exact when you look at these type of things if i was doing

What i used to do which is like betting on basically a company’s earnings and i have sticking a ton of money now i was expecting this great earnings something like this helping cost it that would have been a horrible decision lucky enough i don’t do that anymore but still this is something i should have researched it’s big it’s big the company posted quarterly

Revenue of forty six point nine billion in quarterly net income of nine billion or one dollar in 67 cents per share so let’s go ahead and take a look now at what i had for the company we see here that the company reported 46.9 in 167 let’s look at what i had i had two dollars of eps to two hundred and ten cents are we way above what they actually reported and i had

54 billion for revenue so we still got a lot of a lot of money to make up for and how i made this mistake because he reported basically seven billion less than what i had seven billion lesson when i had huge huge difference we’re talking here so the quarter ending september 24th vs. ending september 30th like i thought it might that matters some but we still got

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To find some more money here so next page up we’re looking at by the way apple basically just barely beat analysts estimates in case you guys are keeping track analysts have dollar sixty-five apple reporter dollar 67 and revenue just barely beat by like 100 million so let’s look at where the revenue actually came from so what first off america’s down seven percent

That’s surprising i thought america’s would at least be flat if not grow with that so down seven percent that accounts for definitely a big percentage of my mistake and then look at greater china that’s something i did not anticipate at all greater china revenue came at 8.7 billion that was down thirty percent year-over-year to 4 2015 they did 12 and a half billion

In greater china it is amazing to me what has happened with apple and china apple was growing like insane in china there was quarters like this is literally talking about like a year or two ago like two years ago ever growing in revenue by lee 99% ridiculous ridiculous ridiculous rates and now to be down thirty percent your revenue and greater china oh that’s like

Mind-blowing to me mind-blowing i cannot believe that that’s something i saw there was weakness in china in the last couple quarters but i really didn’t think there would be this much weakness and i thought they would get back to growth with iphone 7 not true at all is that apple’s mistake or is that just the chinese economy being softer than it was two years ago

I don’t know let’s get into this japan grew a bit that’s fine rest of asia-pacific was basically about flat so let’s go down and look at these products now so i phone did 45 million units versus last year it did 48 million units versus i had them doing 51 million units so i was considerably off now one of my big thesis ha’s was that samsung in this whole recall

Thing that was going to affect apple in a very positively way and this is where lazy jeremy comes that i can being lazy and not really looking into these numbers and this is why investing is literally hard work some people think it’s just luck no it’s freaking hard work and you have to look in all these things so let’s talk about this the same for some effect i

Was thinking the samsung thing affected the whole apple quarter right it did not if you actually look at the dates back when the samsung recall happened in all that stuff it was the very end of sep tember and beginning of october’s when the recall and all that stuff happened so my whole thesis did not matter all for this past quarter it absolutely can matter and

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Make matter for this future quarter the one we’re in now but for last quarter didn’t matter at all because the quarter emmett september 24th the recall happened the very end of sep tember so the whole negative samsung effect that didn’t affect apple at all in the past quarter so that’s what you call lazy jeremy being lazy jeremy and not really researching and

Looking into this so that is totally a mistake on my part instead of you know it’s just a big mistake it’s a big mistake so i hope this this helped you guys understand that investing is hardworking you got to really be exact when he exactly did such and such happen when exactly did that product come out when exactly is got to be exact when you’re investing if you

Try to just go off of a recall and say oh i think you know what happened around there like i did you’re gonna wind up with the big mistake like we had right here ipad units ipad units fell also that i expected to grow ipad units i had them doing around 10.5 million ipad units versus last year they did 9.8 i thought ipad we get back to growth this isn’t such a more

Of a lazy thing on my part this is just a flat-out ipads aren’t selling as well as i thought so i can’t really fault myself for that i i mean i guess you can fault myself for anything but at the same time this is just i thought ipads was so better than they did in the fact that they’re a million units plus off of what i thought that just proves the ipads very weak

Right now and people are not upgrading their ipads like they used to if at all or buy new ones so that’s what we have there mac i did expect mac sales to be down and sure enough they were down they were down almost a million units mackler services revenue was one of the few things i got right i had services web new growing twenty percent they actually grew twenty

Four percent so bravo to me that’s one thing i actually gotta hate on missile this whole apple deal other products accounted for 2.3 billion which is also down versus last year when other products was at three billion so that’s a twenty-two percent decline this once again is not necessarily me being lazy me just being wrong flat out i thought apple watch too was

Going to sell much better than it did in a quarter and move more units i thought you know the beats and all those other products were going to see sell better in there down twenty-two percent as flatout just wrong on that just like i was in the ipad units there’s really nothing to blame on another then we demand for apple products in those categories so let’s go


Ahead and look at next quarter and just kind of kind of view some things here so apple is providing the following guidance first 2017 first-quarter revenue between 76 and 78 billion is what they’re expecting in last year for reference they did 75.8 seven billion in year ago sales analyst expects about 75 so apple is expecting to get back to growth very slow growth

I mean if they only do the very bottom range 76 billion first is last year they did 75.8 that’s like anemic growth that’s like point one percent or something ridiculous like that they can do around 78 billion more the top range that’s about two percent growth maybe three percent growth somewhere around there so apple is expecting to get back to slight growth now

This is where my whole negative samsung effect and all that stuff can come into play in that whole theory but the bottom line is even with all that said apple are they even a growth company more i mean i know they’re not going to be like one of those companies that’s growing revenue twenty percent or something ridiculous a quarter anymore they’re too big for that

The law of large numbers is real and it happens in apple’s experience than that but can apple even grow in a three four five six percent growth rate anymore i have a lot of questions about that right now you’ll have two guys will just have to see on my three stocks to video i’m buying now in november all i’m thinking should i drop apple from for my three stocks to

Buy list right now i’m a my mind isn’t made up but that video is coming out next week so i need to make up my mind very very soon i hope this video helped you guys immensely today in understanding a mistake in that it’s not to be ashamed about a mistake and it’s great to call yourself out if you were lazy and it’s great to call yourself out when you’re wrong and

Look into things and figure out why you were wrong don’t just be ashamed and put in the past that’s what so many people do when thing or whatever they’re embarrassed and they’re like oh it was wrong throw it away i don’t even want to look at it instead of looking at these things because the more you look at them and figure out why it was wrong the less likely you

Are to make a mistake in the future it helped greatly thank you guys for watching and subscribe if you haven’t i talked a ton about personal finance on this channel business i’m an entrepreneur i give entrepreneur tips and i talk a lot about the stock market and do channels just like we did today thank you guys and have a great day you

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How i screwed up BAD with Apple Q4 Numbers! – Bad Jeremy! By Financial Education

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