How to know when a RECESSION IS COMING!

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There’s many subscribers thank you so much for joining me today i am jeremy this is the financial education channel in today we’re talking about how do you know whenever a session is coming i get you guys so often asking in that comment section how do you know when a recession is coming jeremy if a recession was coming jeremy how do we why are we supposed to know

That well the real answer is there’s no way to really predict out six months from now twelve months from now 18 months from now that there will be a recession there won’t be but i’m gonna give you guys ten exact signs that if you see these signs happening guys these 10 things and or maybe five of these ten things eight of these ten things if you see that guys you

Told you should probably start running for the exits because it’s probably about to get ugly guys so i’m going to enjoy sharing this with you so you know if you’ve never been through a recession you’re just wondering how to predict it you will know exactly how to do it now guys so let’s get right into this hit that thumbs up button if you enjoy today number one

Weakness seen in your business if you’re a business owner weakness in your business weakness seen if you work for somebody their business or just talking with family friends about the companies they work for earth they own a company like how their business is doing in general if you see a lot of weakness as far as like you know whatever you know your friends over

There he’s saying man our business has been a little slow this month you know it’s way way under what we did last month or it’s quite a bit off of what we did last year and you’re seeing that in the business you work for you you own you seeing that misprint if you’re seeing a consistent trend that also and everybody seems to kind of be down about numbers all those

Kinds of things if you’re seeing that in your personal life then there’s a good chance of recessions coming i mean and it can’t just be like oh you own one business right and your business just how to have a struggling month that doesn’t mean anything but if there’s a consensus around your friends and your family as well they’re all struggling as well and things

Are getting a little worse for them then you can start putting some ways into that and saying okay mitt you know what i got five friends all of them say their sales are down that’s a little strange you know my business i work for their sales are down you know then you’re starting to see a trend so look around your personal life first and foremost and try to see

Some trends that are happening there you seen some downtrends it’s probably going to mean some the bad things are about to happen number two you want to look at the unemployment rate and see if it’s rising if the unemployment rate also starts to take up a bit pick up a bit and it does that a couple months in a row like two three months in a row that is definitely

A sign to worry about so pay attention on employment rate see you see where that’s going number three this is probably more important than the unemployment rate jobs report if there’s two or three months in a row where jobs reports coming clearly very weak you know well under consensus estimates if they miss estimates two three months in a row as far as the jobs

Numbers goes it’s definitely a big worry out there that’s definitely something you should start paying attention to and saying things about to get ugly what’s going on here but you don’t want to just focus on one month if it’s just one month it could just be a one in ten month you know something that could happen in the weather maybe it was way colder than expected

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And not as many construction workers were hired or something like that so don’t just put all your weight one month but if it’s two three months in a row these jobs number come in week and they come in well under consensus estimates then you need to start to worry and that’s definitely something to pay attention to at that point so that complain combined with the

Unemployment rate definitely some big factors there number four you want to look for revision downward in the monthly job numbers so every month job job numbers come out right then sometimes during the course of that next month they either revise those numbers up or down because generally speaking those numbers are not exactly perfect so sometimes they revise them

Up which we’ve seen a lot over the last couple years you know the revisions will go up a little bit that jobs numbers are actually better than expected when it when it’s all said and done the numbers are really calculated fully and but if you see several months you know two three months in a row also jobs numbers are reported down you know they’re missing estimates

And then on top of that they’re being revised down they’re actually worse than what the government thought originally that is definitely something i pay attention to and that’s all public information that’s all put out there every single time a jobs report comes out guys so pay attention to that see those revisions fall some twenty thousand jobs were not there that

They thought were there it’s not a good thing number five if more than has to come pathet more than half the public companies out there are missing revenue numbers that were expected by them that is definitely a big sign don’t worry why revenue numbers specifically what revenue numbers are better indicator of the overall economy net income can be kind of controlled

A bit by the company itself right net income you know they could lay out some employees here and maybe so they meet numbers or they could just find some synergies here they can solve a business which makes their net income look better things like that you can kind of trick net income a bit revenue numbers you can’t trick that crap so if more than half the public

Companies are reporting revenue numbers that are not meeting analysts expectations or even more importantly the company’s expectations because almost every single company puts out a yearly guidance or they put it out every every quarter right they say their numbers if they’re if more than half of them are missing those revenue numbers that means the economy as a

Whole is definitely weakening or just becoming weak in general guys number six here companies giving weak guidance so after they report that quarterly report that maybe it’s not so good a lot of them will probably report weak guidance so the numbers they’re going to say for the next three months for instance if they report some numbers and they say oh you know we

Expect down year-over-year or growth is going to slow substantially if a massive amount of companies are doing that a huge sign toward because those ceos when-whenever numbers come out they’re generally for the last three months and then they they have like a month to to get those numbers together right then they come out with the quarter of the report so they’ve

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Already seen what happened the last one so if they see in the last month and they kind of see what future orders and in backlog and those kinds of things are and those aren’t looking so good they’re going to make they’re going to do a really weak guidance number and if you start seeing company after company doing weak guidance that’s definitely definitely a big

Sign of uncertainty and a lot of worried out of there out of big ceos and cfos of these huge corporation guys so definitely definitely pay attention to that number seven if banks start to report more loan losses than expected if this bank in this bank in this bank over here jp morgan fargo bank of america citigroup if these banks are starting to report a lot more

Loan losses than expected another huge like ding-ding-ding something going wrong with the economy because when people default on loans when they default on loans that generally because they lost their job they came upon a financial hardship or something and if it’s consistent around this bank in this bank in this thing and everybody’s reporting more loan losses

Than expected it’s definitely showing some weakness in the underlying economy because like i said when though when people don’t pay their loans off it’s generally because they lost their job or something happened with their business or something like that guys they don’t just stop paying their car paying their house paying their credit cards because they’re doing

Great believe me so huge one to pay attention to there and that you can find out whenever banks report their quarterly numbers that’s all public information as well loan losses number eight number eight here guys if you see leisure companies having very weak guidance and i’m talking really weak like like way way way under what they were thinking then that’s a huge

Word so pay attention a lot of leisure companies because when the economy olson starts to get a little weak right the first thing people really pull back on is leisure activities trips vacations them some of these kinds of things so some companies you’ll want to watch out for company like i own wynn resorts it’s a huge one that in the luxury gaming market hawaiian

Airlines the biggest airlines in hawaii definitely i mean if people are losing their jobs all sudden not feeling so good about the economy then i’m going to be planning out trips to hawaii and spent a three thousand dollars carnival cruise lines another public company you can watch to kind of see what their expectations and numbers are for the next quarter not

Everybody’s gonna be booking cruises false in the economy you know they’re feeling or feeling they might lose their job or something like that guys so pay attention one of those leisure type companies that you know people cut back on when times are starting to get hard or hard in general pay attention of those number nine number nine thing i like to pay attention

To is companies like fedex ups the train so like union pacific burlington santa fe and some of those type of train company csx trains there’s only really for may train companies in america want to say it pay attention some of those fedex ups and see what their numbers are reporting what is the management’s tone on those conference calls what’s the guidance looking

Like for those companies because those companies are responsible for moving goods all around the united states right so if all of a sudden those companies and some of them are even a little more global especially in fedex and ups case but if those companies are also feeling like you know they’re the ones that move products all around right so a volson there’s

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Business is slowing down substantially that means there’s not as much product moving around which means there aren’t as many people buying product which is also alternately going to have to come back to the companies and they’re going to probably have to cut jobs right and it also means that people aren’t buying as much stuff then they’re a little more on cost

In the economy in themselves in their jobs and maybe they lost jobs and that’s why they’re not buying stuff so definitely pay attention to fedex ups the trains all those type of numbers guys very important to see what what goods are coming in and around last one number ten monthly auto sales numbers if monthly auto sales numbers slow to let’s say ten percent or

More if they’re doing ten percent plus less than they did the previous year it’s definitely a big sign of worry guys if monthly auto sales and monthly auto sales come out every single month if they’re doing ten percent less than the previous year did or more than that definitely a huge sign to worry about their guys because when people aren’t buying cars as much

It means they’re probably a little more worried car you know an auto purchase usually the second biggest purchase someone will make after a home now home sales i don’t like to pay attention too much to those as far as the early days because people buy homes you know three months out six months out right and there’s a build time of three six months sometimes even

Nine months on a luxury home that might even be more than a year so those numbers could still be good as far as home sales go right because the the transactions usually record it when the person actually takes that home into possession so they might have ordered that home six months ago to be built new home sales right but they may not get that till six months out

So those numbers can look good and kind of fabricate things auto sales not that way and auto sales are not that way auto sales as soon as they’re seeing they show that in those monthly auto sales reports guys so definitely pay attention of those and those ten ways is how you will know if a recession is coming if you start to see those trends emerging then there’s

Definitely a huge sign to worry there guys and if you see just like one of them two of them doesn’t mean that they were going into recession but if you’re seeing all these ten shirts we’re going into recession if you’re seeing five six and we’re probably and if you’re seeing seven eight then we’re more than likely guys so keep in mind those ten for the future you

Can kind of keep track of those and then you’ll you’ll know in the future if we’re going to have a recession if we’re going into one and all those kinds of things guys so thank you so much for joining me today i hope you enjoyed hit that thumbs up button if you did you joe came across this channel you may want to subscribe we talk personal finance in the channel

We talk entrepreneurship on an actual business owner and give away so many business tips we talk to stock market than most of everything thank you for watching guys and have a great day

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How to know when a RECESSION IS COMING! By Financial Education

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