I might lose a fortune in stocks next week

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Holy smokers guys i might lose a fortune next week all right i might lose a fortune i’m very scared going into next week two of my four biggest investments in the entire stock market are both reporting numbers next week all right we got one reporting numbers on tuesday another one reporting numbers on thursday so it’s a big big week for me i could lose a lot of

Money this upcoming week so i want to go into both of these companies what these companies do i want to go into the numbers expect it by these companies whether i believe they will beat their our earnings or whether i think there’ll miss earnings and also if i will buy any more shares if their stocks go down if i will sell off if their shares go up i want to talk

About all that i’m really really scared guys i’m so scared that i accidentally shaved my whole face last night like i you know it’s just scary out there all right let’s give those guys hope you enjoy this the first one up here is totally moly toll brothers they’re gonna be reporting numbers on tuesday all right they’re gonna be reporting numbers on tuesday this is by

Far my worst performing stock they’re a high-end home builder the highest end home builder you can possibly invest in as a public company by far and away there are their forward peas under seven and like i said this is my worst performing stock by a mile this one ion cost basis i’m down over 13% there’s nothing that comes even close in my accounts to how bad this

One is performing for me it’s absolutely been a disaster stock i’ve lowered cost basis lowered cost basis we’re still down 13% on this one going into earnings that’s what’s scary about this down 13% going into earnings what happens if the stock thinks more we could be undone 20 plus percent so it’s it’s been an ugly ugly stock for us you know since we got in a few

Months ago i believe in this company a lot long term i love this business model but i gotta say guys these numbers are gonna be hard to hit all right they’re expected to do around analysts are expecting them to do around $1 3 cents of eps all right the only 3 cents a year ago they did 87 cents all right so they’re expecting a pretty big increase there now the home

Prices are expected to rise considerably again for the company it’s been a consistent trend all right orders should be pretty strong the backlogs been very very strong for the company but we still don’t know how many they’ve been able to produce we know a lot of the home builders have been facing labor struggles out there meaning there’s just haven’t been enough

Workers to produce the homes also wages are going up so it’s kind of like a bad double combo plus we’ve also seen a lot of home builders struggle with raising their profitability because everything has gotten more expensive from the metals using a home from the lumber used in a home and a lot of different products so all these things weigh on profitability and so

Going into these artie’s i’m a little scared i’m a little scared eat you know 87 cents last year now they’re expecting around $1 o3 i’m a little scared with that number all right the next number i’m very i’m even more scared up is a revenue so expecting revenue analysts are expecting revenue to be up over 20% year over year over 20% year over year that analysts are

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Expecting there that’s a big number there guys that’s a big big number that’s a hard number to hit we’re gonna have to see if that comes true all right now if we look here their last quarter revenue or excuse me net income actually went down from 73 cents the previous year to 72 cents this year all right so on the net income side the eps side that’s a little scary

The fact that last quarter year over year there was actually weaker if this was a weaker number that’s gonna be a massive miss imagine if they only do 86 cents or 85 cents of eps when they’re expected to around 87 cents that would be a massive massive miss when analysts are expecting amount of dollar 3 so that’s a little scary for me and if we look at revenues last

Quarter they were up around 17% so expecting revenues to be up over 20% so going into these earnings it’s a little scary but if we look at this company right as a company once again that’s trading at a forward p under 7 on this stock all right so let’s think about this logically for a second all right let’s say they just are in line with their earnings or let’s say

It’s even a slight mess how low can this stock go or like like where’s the where’s the bottom in a stock like toll brothers is it out of 6p 40 are we gonna go down to a 5 for p it’s gonna be like an mu situation when i look at toll brothers the company this is not a company i expect i don’t think right now is like the top for their business i don’t think this is as

Good as it’s gonna get when you look at the numbers on how much we’ve lagged over the past decade in terms of new home starts it’s lagged in a massive massive way can come to where we are historically at we’re usually at around 1.6 million home starts per year we’ve been considerably under that the majority of years if you go packs you know basically since the great

Recession happened so when i look at toll brothers i’m like okay let’s say they slight miss there’s a stock sell-off even more like like where where does the where’s the bottom for the stock i hope it doesn’t i want to recover a lot in this stock it’s not a stock i really want to funnel that much more money in because there’s so many other great companies that i

Honestly like more than toll brothers i love toll brothers don’t get me wrong but there are a lot of other companies including this one we’re going to talk about right now yeah i love a lot more in toll brothers and i’m like i don’t really want to stick more money in toll brothers so if it drops the 31 dollars a share $30 a share i really don’t want to put more

Money in the stock so in terms of that one i’m hoping they beat on earnings i’m hoping that’s the strong earnings i hope the stock goes up because this is not one i really want to put more money and at this point i already have a massive position in this company and i just want to keep that position for the next you know a few years out or whatever so we’ll have

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To see what happened there guys it’s definitely you know a scary one going in big numbers expected we’re just gonna have to see stock number two that is gonna be reporting earnings this week is alibaba which is like stock i’ve been buying heavily the past few weeks so heavily you know much more aggressive by for me than most stocks going and most stocks i’m i like

You don’t start dipping my toe in alibaba the last few weeks i’ve been to buying this one heavily guys heavily so alibaba right now trades at a ford p of 22 alright which is fairly low when you consider the type of market we’re in and when you consider the type of growth numbers this company is doing and is expected to do alright now this is one i’m not nearly as

Scared as toll brothers and i’ll explain myself in just a minute but in terms of eps year ago they did a dollar fifteen aps you notes are only expecting them to do around at all or 22 that’s hardly a rise in eps there guys so when i look at alibaba i’m looking at this one i’m like they should be able to beat these numbers pretty easily should be able to beat that

Number the eps number very easily when you look at what the revenues expect to do they’re suspected to have a sales growth of over 61% in this quarter guys over 61% as far as guidance for next quarter they should they’re you know at least analysts are expecting them to guide 63% up number there it’s a massive massive number there so when i look at alibaba i look at

This one i’m like i think especially on the eps side it’s a much easier beat than toll brothers so if i had to you know yes i guess you would say or or flip a coin and say which one’s gonna you know has a better likelihood of beating eps i would say alibaba has a better chance than toll brothers at being there eps number like that’s hardly a rise in eps and a toll

Brother you know alibaba’s and are in a position right now where they’re just growing revenue in a massive way a lot of is unprofitable revenue right now cuz they’re spending so much money on so many different things that are big-time growth vectors for the company but at the same time like they should be able to beat a dollar 22 of epi said that should be an easy

Beat there guys know going in there’s a little scary because we’ve seen the chinese stocks get hammered okay baidu alibaba $0.10 they’ve all been hit and those are kind of the three big dogs especially alibaba and $0.10 alright nevermind not a ton of the smaller chinese companies the ones that are really shown insane growth and are little smaller players those ones

Had been on an absolute tear you know some of those stocks had been up 100-plus percent and we’ve seen over the past few months those stocks just get absolutely sold off and just absolutely destroyed almost every single chinese stock if you got any in the past few months you’re probably down on your position right now almost every single one they’ve all been hit

Very hard and this is basically a lot of it’s because of the tariff situation a lot of people are scared about chinese stocks and we saw 10 cent last week report numbers and we saw their stock sell off more and they actually saw their their earnings go down honestly the the company’s profit for the quarter ending in june dip 2% so it’s a little scary from this the

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Perspective of wow you know $0.10 just saw their their earnings go down their net income go down could that be a situation that happens with alibaba right now investors are very scared of the chinese stocks we’ve seen this with a lot of sell-off over the past few months and if alibaba misses maybe that just gives people more initiative to sell their shares off and

Say oh i just want out of that one now alibaba i really hope it goes down this is the stock i really hope goes out i hope toll brothers goes up i hope alibaba goes down which means the opposite will probably happen alibaba will go up and toll brothers will go down but i really want alibaba to go down i am totally for that i would love to build a better a bigger

Stake in the company i built a lot of shares in this company over the past few weeks but i would love to build this into a much much bigger position over the coming months so i’m hoping they miss i hope the stock tanks i hope it goes down to a 160 level 150 level so i can get a bigger stake belt there because i really believe in that company i think it’s gonna be

Well i think you know it’s already one of the biggest companies in the world it’s already one of the most important companies but when i look out over the next decade that say i think alibaba is gonna be one of the five most important companies in the world you know when i think of the most important companies in the world five ten years from now i think alibaba

I think of apple i think of google i think of facebook those are the four that right off the top of my head they just come to me and then i probably think about $0.10 and microsoft after that so what i’m thinking about companies that are just you know have these huge growth vectors going for them that should keep up for several several years into the future you

Know alibaba is one of the first ones that come up and when i’m looking at the stock at a 22 forward p/e and still those companies in a stage right now we’re they’re not really focused on profitability that much okay when this company actually starts to focus around profitability in a major way like just wait to see what the numbers they start doing over time so

I hope you guys enjoyed this let me know what you think about either one of these stocks also let me know if any of your companies are reporting numbers next week i would love to hear from you guys in that comment section its earnings craziness this is the last big week for earnings and then it starts to taper off and then we have about a month or two of calmness

In the market and then next thing you know we’re having bigger earnings coming again in the fall time but let me know what you guys think about this in that comment section you don’t cross your fingers for me we need some good stuff to happen there thank you for watching have a great day

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I might lose a fortune in stocks next week By Financial Education

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