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Howdy there folks welcome into today’s video i want to talk about my plans for the stock market for the next 30 days specifically and kind of what’s going on so first off if you didn’t know um the next 30 days in the market is going to be absolutely insane okay first thing that’s going to be insane is we essentially have the inflation data coming for this past month
That is going to move the market either up or down in a major major way everybody wants and needs to see at least if you are a believer in the market over time right we need to see inflation coming down if we come in at another eight percent plus number it’s not good if if the rate of increase even increases to nine percent that’s a disaster for the stock market
Right so that’s going to be a big meaningful thing we also obviously have earnings coming basically almost every single big company out there is going to announce their earnings over the next 30 days okay so this is a huge huge deal the first companies that are actually going to report are actually this upcoming week essentially all right and those are going to be
The big banks almost every single one of these big banks is reporting their earnings this upcoming week okay including jp morgan which i think is probably the most important of the banks to kind of hear what’s going on there and so they’re going to be obviously reporting earnings telling what’s going on in the economy now we’ve had a couple companies report this
Past week actually wd-40 for instance reported and they actually missed on both lines now levi’s reported earnings this past week levi’s earnings were tremendous very very strange like revenue was great uh margins were great bottom line was great for levi’s i was i was amazed i was like holy smokes like and so we got to figure out is there something specific going
On with levi’s or is or maybe company earnings going to come in stronger than expected upstart on on the flip side right which upstart is a fintech company i’m not sure how many you guys uh keep track of uh you know different fintech companies out there by the way fintech has been a disaster but when it comes to upstart uh yeah it’s been tough i mean year to date
That stocks down over 81 percent but you know their numbers were pretty weak when they announced here recently and uh you know basically all the fintechs have been a mess for for quite some time right and when it comes to these sorts of stocks there’s not going to be any level of comfort in any of these stocks until the market really wants to go risk on again and
The market’s not going to go risk on again until the rate of increase of inflation starts coming down and uh because once that happens and it consistently happens month after month after month then the fed doesn’t have to be so aggressive with not only their actions but obviously their language in regards to that no big tech obviously is what really moves the market
Okay this is what really moves the needle for the market the reason being is these companies are the heaviest weight in the market okay tesla i mean even after its huge drop this is a 779 billion dollar company google mcdougall is at a 1.5 trillion dollar market cap apple’s at a 2.38 trillion dollar market cap and amd’s fallen a lot 45 percent year-to-date but
Still that’s 128 billion mark cap nvidia has fallen off a cliff so far this year but still it’s almost a 400 billion dollar mic uh market cap microsoft’s 2 trillion adobe’s 184 billion amazon’s 1.1 trillion dollars meta’s falling off a cliff this year right but still it’s a 462 billion dollar market cap on that one so when you’re looking at these sorts of stocks
These are what’s going to move the market either up or down right depending upon their earnings now if we think about those different companies right and we kind of go through those and just think about those for a moment right uh you know tesla tesla my tesla uh they’re you know they’re doing everything they can to run their business as flawlessly as possible but
They just have a lot of things that are working against them right now specifically in regards to shanghai china and everything that’s been going on there with the lockdowns and things like that so it’ll be interesting to see where tesla’s earnings per share is at eps you know we already know their production numbers you know i thought it was actually really really
Impressive when i looked at their production numbers considering how many things we’re working against us i was very very impressed but now we got to see more margins are at for tesla now we got to see where the bottom line’s at for tesla right google mcdougall i mean you know they’re amazing company they’re gonna they’re gonna report a solid quarter i don’t think
It’s going to be out of this world great but they’re going to report a solid quarter apple is the one i’m really really worried about to be quite honest and the reason being is i just think they benefited massively from everybody being at home and i think that pushed a lot of people to buy laptops computers uh you know just about everything you know when that whole
The whole you know work from home school from home movement i think was a massive boost for a company like apple on top of that all that stimulus money that was pumped out there right it benefited apple in a massive massive weight also you know what else benefits apple in a massive way people don’t even think about this people only sometimes think about apple
In regards to like somebody going out there by a new iphone what about all the businesses that spent massively on apple over the last few years because their earnings are really strong their business was really strong it was easy to raise money right so why not invest in a bunch of new macs for your workforce right and uh you know other other different products
That obviously apple has so apple’s the one that i’m a little concerned about not only for this earnings season but also where their guidance is at for next quarter and also we’ve heard micron already come out just uh that was probably a week ago or so and micron said they have specific customers that are cutting orders and we know that mike on an apple do a lot
Of business and so i’m thinking i’m guessing that apple’s next quarter’s guidance is not going to be good it’s not going to be good at all okay so that’s the one i really worry about and obviously if apple was to go down on earnings because it’s such a huge market cap that would pull the entire s p 500 down it would pull qqq down it would pull down semiconductor
Stocks and it would also pull down the overall uh vibe of the market to even a worse place if you you got the biggest big dog which is apple and they don’t quite their numbers aren’t quite up there okay so that’s definitely a little worrisome there amd and nvidia i think both of those earnings when when they announced which they won’t uh i i don’t know if we’ll
Get we’ll get amd likely in the next 30 days i don’t think we’ll get nvidia in the next 30 days but when it comes to amd i think that’s a stock that um i i don’t think their next earnings are going to be necessarily great not because there’s anything wrong with their business model i just don’t think that space is in the best place right now essentially okay uh mr
Softee is going to report solid no matter what that’s just kind of what they do amazon is gonna report solid but the problem is everybody always has very high expectations for mr amazon right meta that isn’t a good position going into this earnings season the only reason they’re in a good position essentially is because now they’re talking about cutting way back
On hiring so in terms of the amount of money they’re going to need to spend that’s going to go down also let’s be honest the expectations for mata or through are just non-existent right companies trades at like a 12 p e the stock is down about 50 percent year-to-date right 50 year to date so there’s a big divergence between a company like a meta right in a company
Like an apple a company like an apple is only down 17 year a day so the expectations for apple in this earnings season are still pretty darn up there right meta on the other hand no one’s expecting anything everybody’s almost expecting a disaster right so if they just come in with something decent it’s not a disaster that stock’s ready to make a move up netflix on
You know has this same exact situation i mean that stocks down 68 year a day so it’s just in a position where you know obviously no one believes in that we’ve talked a lot obviously about the small caps mid caps and those sorts of stocks and i mean mean a lot of those talks to straightened in very very cheap values so i think guidance will be very important with
Those companies specifically in regards to margins and especially for any other companies that lose money i think that’s going to be really important i think palantir earnings are going to be very very important for everybody to hear what happens there i think that’s a very important stock for the retail crowd specifically and i think those earnings really matter
Much more to the market for the psychology of the market that i think a lot of folks really anticipate there we obviously have all the safety stocks reporting what happens with margins for these companies you know these are these are big giant corporations that are well established but the issue for these companies is they don’t have much growth like pretty much
All these companies that i have in my safety stocks watch list right none of these companies have major growth and so the big question will be if if their inputs are obviously becoming much more expensive can they offset that with the consumer or are the consumers trading down to cheaper brands because a lot of these are all companies that are our brand name clorox
I mean you could buy actual clorox bleach or you could buy store brand bleach right you could buy pepsi you could buy a cheaper version right you can buy name brand ketchup or you can buy the store brand ketchup right and mustard and things like that and so all these companies it’s going to be very important now kroger recently came out this was probably three or
Four weeks ago and what did kroger tell us kroger told us that they were already starting to see a lot of consumers go down to like store brands and things like that okay which kind of shows you the state of the consumer because if the state of the consumer is like i don’t want to buy heinz i don’t want to buy the name brands ketchup i’ll buy the cheapest brand
That i possibly can i don’t want to buy uh french’s mustard or or heinz mustard or anything like that i’ll go to the whatever the store brand is whatever’s cheapest right walmart brand kroger brand whatever that obviously shows the consumers in a weakening pattern right where they’re like um yeah store brands uh you know that’s perfectly fine we can’t really do the
The brand names so it would be very interesting with inflation going on with these companies i don’t know man i mean a lot of these stocks have already started to fall i mean look at a stock like target this one have actually started picking up recently and i wouldn’t mind adding some more shares in my dividends on the account of target but you know to be honest
Target’s likely not going to have a next you know a very exciting next couple quarters just bottom line when you think about the comps they have to comp against year over year from these next couple quarters you know the good news for target is 2023 i think it’s going to be a much easier year for them for the comps but this year is just a tough year and that’s why
Wall street’s try to get out in front of this thing even though it’s been kind of hard to right and just kind of you know get off that so that’s kind of going on with the safety stocks there travel should be interesting because you know if you want to think about are people canceling cruises or is anything like that going on right a company like wins going to be
Interesting to see how the high-end consumers doing are they still out there spending i you know from what i’ve seen i’ve seen some of the high-end consumers even get a little bit a little bit worried right and um yeah we’re gonna have to see i mean i can tell you you know i go to like you know the mall and i see some of these stores like louis vuitton and whatnot
They’re not busy like they were busy like a year ago or so you know those stores would have lines out just people waiting to go in there when all the stimulus money was out there and the ppp loans and all that stuff man i’m telling you the louis store the gucci store all those places i’d never seen those stores that busy in my life and i’ve always like just kind
Of like looked at those stories and just try to keep track of like how many customers are actually in these places that there was about a two-year span where i never seen those stores busy like that right and so clearly there’s going to be a massive pullback in spending on a lot of those higher end brands from louis and all those other ones does that boil over to a
Win i don’t know we’re gonna have to see and also win has to obviously deal with the mess of macau let’s call it that right so they’re dealing with all that right now the airlines are very very busy the issue with the airlines is i mean they have pilot shortage they have oh my gosh i mean it’s a disaster like even i was thinking about uh you know flying somewhere
Recently and i was just like gosh man like you you hear about all these stories about people you know having their flights canceled and canceled and pushed back for hours and hours and hours and i’m like it sounds like a nightmare to fly anywhere right now so what does that mean the profitability the airlines obviously we know fuel costs have gone insane also from
What i’m hearing some of these companies are having to pay their pilots like way a bigger amounts of money essentially than they usually would and the reason being is obviously there’s a pilot shortage right now right so and then i’m hearing about you know tech problems with some of these airlines i mean it’s a messy situation so that should be interesting to see
Kind of what what happens there the housing stocks i think you know there’s going to be several of these companies that actually report over the next 30 days i think these are very important companies to all pay attention to i think even home depot and lowe’s um in terms of specifically where their guidance is at i think with the home builders don’t people kind
Of get caught into a problem with the home builders and the problem is they look at whatever their their current numbers are for this past quarter essentially and they assume oh a home builder had this revenue go up this much so they had their profitability here so they assume like oh everything’s great with the home builders you always want to pay attention to
How many homes are going under contract that’s going to tell you the truth about the current state of the home market because if contracts are very weak which i think they’re going to be for all the home builders that means essentially people aren’t you know buying homes right and i think that’s going to be the situation i think that’s going to add more worries
Obviously to the real estate situation i think the real estate situation is going to get very real very quickly here and uh yeah it’s amazing how fast actually the real estate markets turn because six months ago the real estate market was in such a boom time everybody was so excited about it prices were skyrocketing inventory was still fairly low fast forward six
Months inventories are skyrocketing across the united states i mean you look at the numbers it’s insane right the all these home builders i can tell you that they’re you know we’ll see in these numbers i can guarantee you they’re not having nearly nearly even remotely close to the type of demand of a homes going under contract as they were previously interest rates
Have gone up a lot consumer confidence has you know gone to the lowest pretty much we’ve ever seen right investor confidence is extremely low now and now everybody’s scared about the current state of the housing market you add fuel to the fire there and so i just think those numbers are going to be a disaster for the next several quarters i’m not playing put options
Or anything in regards to housing stocks i just think they’re kind of in a tough place to be quite on honest and i don’t see that fixing itself this year you know maybe at some point 2023 or 2024 but i don’t think there’s any magic like oh housing’s fixed anytime soon man when you look at what mortgage rates are at when you think about how low consumer confidence
Is and uh plus we kind of already had this massive pull forward of demand of people moving and things like that yeah i don’t think that’s a a pretty situation at all so for me personally you know i obviously i spent a lot of money on the market this year like i’ve been deploying capital left and right right i would love it if we can get a breather for a bit i would
Not mind at all if the market kind of just drifts a little higher and i can actually catch my breath a little bit and maybe cash up for for let’s say the next 30 to 60 days okay then if we get now if we get any major drop i’m going to keep deploying out there so the news i got the lows was down about roughly about 34 from peak to trough and this was as of like two
Two and a half weeks ago when the nasdaq hit the lows right if we go back down to those levels even lower i’ll deploy more money in the market but i would love to just kind of get a time period here for this next 30 days where i can catch my breath a little bit cash up a little bit and reassess see where the state of the market is right see if we’re going to have
This massive recession or if this is going to be a situation where you know maybe everybody’s gotten a little ahead of themselves and if anything were in a mild recession right and i think that’s a big that’s the biggest question mark for the stock market is are we in a situation where we’re going to have a great financial crisis of like 0809 right and on employment
Is going to go to like 10 percent and we’re going to have some companies fail that we never saw coming right or is this a sort of situation where you know the market just kind of um you know maybe trends down a little bit but we’ve already seen the worst of it right and that’s a big question it’s all going to depend on really on the state of the economy because
The state of the economy is going to depend upon how these companies earnings come in and are these companies having their revenues not not only go up but they’re bottom line because it’s like well if your revenue is up like well what’s the bottom line right the market over time trades on the bottom line trades on eps it trades on net income doesn’t trade on uh you
Know what companies revenues are doing so if a company’s revenues go up eight percent cool but if that company’s uh net income goes down like at the end of the day like it still means like that stock has lower to go and the market has lower to go unfortunately we’ve priced in a lot of bad news the big question is have we priced it all in or not and that’s going to
Be dependent upon company earnings and if inflation can actually start coming down guys so my plan is cash up a little bit and hope we can get a breather because this year has just been down in a straight line so it’s like you know if you’ve been deploying it’s like non-stop deploying and it’s like can i can i catch a break for just like a few weeks a month maybe
And cash up a little bit and get ready in case we got another major drop here so that’s kind of my hope that’s my plans and um it’s gonna be a busy next 30 days in the market i can tell you that man my batteries were a little drained yesterday but i’m like i gotta get back ready to go man because we’re about to go into earnings season here and uh i gotta be ready
And charged up for that because yeah almost all the big companies over the next 30 days of reporting earnings and we we got to be ready to rock and roll for all those man a lot of conference calls to listen to a lot of numbers to look at and uh yeah it’s going to be big guys so anyways i appreciate you joining me much love as always and have a great day
Transcribed from video
My Plan for The Stock Market The Next 30 Days By Financial Education