The Stock Market is Going for Blood

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Good day subscribers welcome into today’s video got a good amount to talk about here today going to talk about obviously what’s going on the market uh yeah wall street’s sending us a little signal here we got to talk about cpi and some things that are working against us for this upcoming cpi number that’s less than 48 hours and kind of what to expect from that uh

I did buy some stocks today i’m not sure obviously what stocks those were and kind of how i think about deploying capital into the market which i think is an important subject because everybody always see obviously has a finite amount of money and it’s kind of like when when’s the right time to deploy in stocks versus uh you know stay back and keep cash and things

Like that and i’ll kind of give you my perspective on that so first off here um wow yeah i mean the market’s kind of kind of been um on the dl you know coming back a bit this is just over the past few weeks the nasdaq uh bottomed out intraday one day at like 10 five range and um you know we’ve climbed up to like 11 6 right and yeah it was it was it was all looking

As good and then wall street said you think you’re the captain i’m the captain now okay and uh yeah today uh not so noble out there and shopify uh i think everybody should have shopify on their watch list the reason being even if you don’t never plan to buy the stock or short the stock or anything i think shopify like literally it’s as simple as this whatever watch

List you have you open up the shopify app or website or whatever right and if shopify is down eight percent you know the market’s awful if shopify is up eight percent you know the market’s great i mean pretty much every day i see the stock making eight percent move it’s like eight percent up eight percent down eight percent up eight percent down and uh no different

Here today with uh shopify good old tesla my ass a pretty big move down here today about six percent and you know tesla lost about fifty dollars per share here today uh not a small number not a small number at all and you know i think i think because the market has been in the state where you know you see these massive companies moving around you know five percent

Eight percent i think it’s almost led us to believe um like this is normal and what i can tell you this is this is not normal this is not normal for uh you know a 700 billion dollar market cap like good old testament esl to move around uh six percent up down up down like on on a daily basis but that’s the market we’re in and you go through these these time periods

When especially when you’re in bear market you’re in a crashing market where you know it’s it’s i mean the the vix doesn’t show really how volatile the market is but when you see these sorts of moves it starts to kind of make sense like oh my gosh like this is not normal this is you know six percent and six percent like holy smokes and these are huge market caps

And it’s not just i mean look at all these other big techs look at uber today five percent netflix five percent meta four and a half percent today nvidia four percent paypal almost four percent uh amazon amd google like three percent moves there you know big moves for these stocks kind of day after day after day which shows you you know like i said the vix is one

Thing to look at and i think it’s important but i think the market’s much more volatile than the vix is giving it right now let’s just put it that way because yeah with these big these big companies i mean small caps you can understand if they’re moving four percent six percent eight percent a day but i mean these are huge companies like tens of billions of dollars

On market cap in some situations hundreds of billions of dollars in market cap and they’re just flying all around up down up down up down right banking gave us a signal here today in my opinion if you didn’t know the big banks are basically all going to be reporting earnings pretty much over like the next five trading days and some of these over the next few

Trading days jp morgan’s in just a few days from now and it you know it almost seems like you know these didn’t make a big move at all today i mean it almost feels like wall street is is doesn’t really think there’s much downside in these ones so they feel like they don’t need to necessarily um position out of those and i’m going to show you guys something in a

Moment so you can kind of understand like how wall street’s kind of thinking about these things right because i think that’s uh obviously kind of an important issue if you look at the fintechs here today so far down three point seven percent paypal down over four percent square down almost six percent the hood down about eight percent a firm down eight percent

And coin just can’t get out of its own way that went down about 11 percent here today man it’s gonna be interesting if we ever get another big bitcoin sell-off you know who knows maybe we already reached the bottom on bitcoin and maybe we got a lot further to follow when it comes to bitcoin it’s gonna be interesting just to see like what happens with coin stock

Price because i mean it’s 50 stock now i mean if bitcoin goes down to 15 000 to 10 000 let’s say hypothetically what does that mean for coin stock are we talking about this is a 25 stock at that point in time like holy smokes does the company get to a position where they have more cash and cash equivalents than they actually do in market capitalization of the entire

Company i mean you never know it’s a possibility we’ve seen that actually play out recently with hud where literally the company dropped to essentially the market cap is is lower than the cash uh recently as a few weeks ago so we’ll see what happens there now i think pulling up a heat map is kind of important on a big downer data like today because you get to

Understand if like what’s going on in the market right and i think the first thing to understand about the market before i kind of get into this is you have a few different groups of folks in the market right you have the long-term investors which are people that are obviously you know buying a stock for the next three years five years 10 years whatever right and

They’re thinking about multi-years down the road and i got to buy these stocks and so that’s a that’s a group of folks in the market right you obviously have uh you know the pension funds that are in the market you obviously have like uh you know the folks that are not buying individual stocks but they’re buying like into index funds and things like that right and

So that’s a group that’s a whole group we’ll just call them the longer term folks right then you have what actually dictates the stock market at least in the short term is not that group i just spoke to you about there dictates the stock market in the short term is actively managed funds so think about hedge funds think about actively managed etfs um and honestly

The machines the the algorithms right algorithm algorithmic trading is massive in the market i mean most trading that’s done now is um by not done by humans anymore at this point in time so if you’re talking about what’s going to move the market in the short term it’s not it’s not that that long-term group it’s these short-term folks that are trying to position

In and out of stocks right and it’s the hedge fund manager that says i gotta sell off you know 50 million dollars of stocks over here so i can put that 50 million into cash because i think you know there’s there’s potential downside this week or i’ve got a hedge sum position so i got to buy you know a bunch of put options over here right that’s that’s who’s kind

Of that’s who’s moving the market in the short term it’s not the long-term investor who comes in and says i’m going to scoop up some shares in this situation right and so if you look at a heat map today this shows us very clearly what these folks are actually doing with their money and the truth is they’re not selling out to go put that money necessarily in other

Sectors the only two that did halfway decent today were utilities and uh you know a little bit of defensive but they weren’t even up very big at all right and so what this shows me here today is folks were in when i say folks i’m talking about hedge funds big money wall street money they were selling some of these stocks and they’re putting that money either into

Cash because it’s a risky week they look at that right or they’re they’re you know using that money to short or they’re using that money to buy puts or something like that right but they’re clearly not rotating like sometimes you can look at a heat map and it’s like you know you might see red red red but then you might see green healthcare you might see green in

Energy and and just you know a lot of big upward moves green and industrials things like that green health care but that’s just not obviously what happened here today the money’s not rotating the money’s either going to cash or it’s going to short or it’s going to hedge and buy puts and things like that okay so that’s just important now cpi numbers so you know

Less than 48 hours from now we’re gonna have the new cpi numbers out which is you know it’s just massive for the entire market and this is the thing that’s going to move and i want to go through specific numbers if we hit those like what that means for the stock market and things like that obviously last month came in at 8.6 food’s gone insane energy’s gone insane

Basically uh just about everything’s gone insane that’s why you come in with an 8.6 number which is obviously extremely high right now oh boy okay here’s the deal with the numbers all right and before i get into that this is very important if you think about june numbers which are the numbers that are about to be reported the biggest down side i see is the fact

That gas prices went to record levels like literally record levels during the month of june you know halfway through the month of june we’ve never seen gas prices that that that up there so nonetheless energy is going to be off the charts high and so that’s likely going to push cpi to pretty darn high numbers and it’s likely going to be a you know a pretty ugly cpi

Number again because and honestly everything else didn’t magically come down food didn’t come magically come down in price ren’s didn’t magically come down in price so july numbers are shaping up to maybe potentially be a little better and the reason being is obviously you’ve seen uh you know oil prices started to decline over the past month or so and that’s good

Obviously we’re starting to get some real weakness in real estate i probably should do a full like blown like real estate video because i was actually just looking at a bunch of numbers and data and stuff around real estate i think it’s very important just kind of understand there so july could be looking a lot better for cpi but this june number could definitely

Be ugly and one of the big reasons is honestly energy price just went absolutely insane during the month of june right now let’s talk about some what-if numbers here for cpi and if it comes in at this number kind of what are we looking at here okay so here’s the deal if we come in lower than eight percent which is probably not happening i would put it like i don’t

Know maybe a 10 probability it’s very low probability we come in less than eight percent although it wouldn’t be necessarily a bad thing there would be a great thing for the market the market would likely have a huge rally because if we came in at lower than eight percent number a lot of people would be that would be a situation where a lot of people would be very

Very confident july’s number would be uh coming in substantially below that number right because obviously energy has gotten much cheaper over the past month than it was obviously during the month of june so that would be a situation where the market rallies hard and there would be a situation where everybody feels a lot more comfortable about the fed potentially not

Being as aggressive okay now if we this is what i think most people are expecting in the market somewhere between an 8 and 8.9 percent number if we come in anywhere in there i don’t expect the market to move up or down in any meaningful way because that’s kind of if we come in at another 8.6 or 8.4 or 8.8 or something like that that’s kind of one of those situations

Where folks are going to look at and they’re like you know when i say folks once again this is the big short-term money the algorithms and obviously the hedge funds and actively managed funds and things like that they’ll look at that and they’ll be like okay we don’t really have enough to go off of here we don’t have enough to say okay inflation’s out of control

Going it’s going to go much higher we we don’t have you know anything to say you know these numbers are going to get much better in the short term either so that would be what i call no man’s land for the market and that would be a situation where we don’t get much movement in the market now if we’re in the nines let’s say nine to nine point nine percent that’s

A flapjacks fall in the floor situation uh that you know definitely expect to move down in the market if we came in at nine point something because that would show a clear indication that inflation is still going much higher the fed’s likely gonna have to still be very very aggressive now the end of the world number i call it is ten percent plus okay if for any

Reason we came at 10 plus i mean there’s going to be no more flapjacks for a couple weeks okay uh yeah that would be ugly now the interesting thing that would happen if we came at 10 plus is not just a sell-off in the market the interesting thing that would happen is vix would spike up super high because people would panic people would absolutely freak out okay

Because if you start talking about 10 plus you start you start going from oh we got high inflation to then you start talking about hyperinflation if we came in a 10 plus number the fed likely would raise almost immediately at least 100 basis points if not 200 basis points almost immediately if that situation played out okay let’s hope that doesn’t play out because

You know and like you know unless you’re looking to buy stocks you can get them a lot cheaper so maybe you’re hoping for like a 10 10.5 number but i can tell you that would be a situation where the entire financial markets would become a disaster stocks would sell off huge bitcoin would likely tanked i don’t know 15k or something like that aetherium would be down

To 700 bucks like that would be a scenario where everything sold off very heavy and we got a massive move down because yeah the fed would just have to be in a situation where their backs against the wall and they have to raise immediately essentially and then also if we came at 10 plus you know the fed already has credibility issues okay they already have credit

So if if we came at 10 plus oh my gosh man everybody’s going to be out for them and you know that then even they’re going to start talking about jay pal needs to step down like the whole the whole the whole talk in conversation moves very differently if you ever came in a 10 plus number right and so we’ll see what happens with all that but that’s kind of what to

Expect from the market if those situations do play out there and like i said the vix the vix would spike very high in in in order for the vix to spike high and we usually see that throughout every crash and we haven’t really seen vix go insane like to a 40 plus you know it obviously spiked very high when russia invaded ukraine that was a big moment for the vix but

We haven’t really seen an epic moment like you saw in 2020 right or like you saw in the 2008 2009 crash where vic spike you know insanely high a few times you know 40 plus and the reason being is we haven’t had necessarily an event outside of the rush ukraine event where it caused mass panic in the market right and so it’s just been a grind down for the market