They Just Lied to You | The Market Reveals Truth

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Hey there folks and welcome into today’s video got some very important stuff to talk about in today’s video i got some very important things to show you in regards to the market what’s going on certain things that are happening out there that i kind of want to explain okay first thing i want to tackle here is something big picture all right now if you listen to some

Folks out there they say things like the only way stocks and crypto and everything can go up is if the fed is expanding their balance sheet rapidly right and this is uh usually kind of an uneducated view in my opinion because if you look at history this is not true whatsoever we can see time periods when the fed balance sheet doesn’t increase substantially at all

And the stock market does very very well we can go back to times when the balance sheet even shrunk during that time and stocks in cryptos and different things at different assets actually when beast mode right and specifically obviously we’re talking about the stock market in general a good example of this in recent history is uh if you look at the balance sheet

January 14 2015 it basically peaked right around then right and then for that time period that was and it just stayed stable and went down over time all the way to september 11 2019. so all during those many years the fed balance sheet didn’t increase and it actually decreased right now what did the stock market do while the balance sheet flatlined and actually went

Down well here’s what the stock market did the s p 500 went up 49 in that same exact time span right the nasdaq went up 76 in that time span so there you were in the time period when the fed balance sheet did nothing and actually shrunk and meanwhile the market did well so anybody that ever tries to uh you know tell you oh the the market can’t do well unless the

Fed’s expanding their balance sheet they’re either uneducated or they’re simply lying to you it’s one of those too and it’s just you know it’s it could be either one right if you look at actually individual stocks i’m just hold up the biggest the big stocks here here’s how those stocks perform during that time period where the balance sheet did nothing right and

Actually shrunk well apple stock went up 109 during that time google stock went up 143 in that time netflix stock went up over 500 percent that time amazon stock went up 500 in that time nvidia stock went up over 800 in that time amd stock went up over 1 000 in that time so i hope that puts to rest this whole notion that uh because there’s a ton of time periods

You can look at in the past where you know the stock market did just fine and the balance sheet did not increase substantially at all the reason i think some people are fabricating this lie out there is because everybody saw what happened obviously in the back half of 2020 and going into 2021 where the fed balance sheet went insane obviously right in the stock

Market went up so now everybody because that’s the most recent thing to happen they think that has to happen in order for the stock market go up and it’s just like factually that’s so far incorrect it’s not even funny so i just wanted to point that guys that out to you guys because i think that’s really really important all right now before we get into the guts of

This video and get through everything i want to give ftx us a shout out here that will be the pinned comment down there you can get up to a hundred dollars in crypto through the pin comment down there and you can get uh basically free crypto on every trade over ten dollars and ftx in the news recently because sam bakeman freed the one that leads ftx uh basically

This case came out a couple days ago they’re injecting 250 million dollars into block phi and partnering with them to navigate the market obviously i think sam’s like trying to be a hero in this situation it’s interesting in the last financial crisis uh buffett came to the rescue of some of the big banks and and helped out with with some different situations it

Seems like sam’s trying to help as much as possible with uh you know everything that’s going on the crypto space right now and uh ftx us also announced they got into stocks recently as well so they also just picked up a company named embed financial technologies and um this is a pretty pretty big deal in my opinion you can kind of read through it here um ftx has

Been expanding into the equity platform over the last year the company said it will not charge commissions or trading fees so yeah i’m excited for what ftx is doing in the not just crypto space but obviously in the stock space as well i think we can use more competition in that space i think that that’s always a good a good thing for um people out there the more

Choices we have the better off we are in my opinion so yeah if you want to take advantage of that and get your free crypto check out ping comment down there and make sure you use referral code holy smokers alrighty guys so the market very good today right um you know dow was up 200 points nasdaq up 1.6 percent s p 500 was up a percent russell’s up 1.2 bitcoin had

A good day bitcoin’s up four percent ethereum’s up seven percent uh solana the smaller one right up about ten percent so good day pretty much across the board gold and silver not really doing too much overall there big tech interesting so you had shopify which is usually seen as kind of the biggest risk of big tech that’s just kind of how it trades at least makes

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A seven and a half percent move meanwhile the other riskier big tech set they call them right amd nvidia tesla all were down today so it’s just weird that shopify had such a beast day while these other you know uh seen as riskier stock because usually how this works is uh shopify trades very much like a tesla just like usually a little more violently let’s call

It that and then it’s kind of nvidia amd and stocks like that so but overall big tech it’s a green day today right target i picked up some target shares in my dividend only account here recently and um just in the past few days and targets are really attractive dividend stock i don’t know how many people have ever looked in target as a dividend stock but recently

Between the stock price you know coming down massively the p being very very low now at this time uh 4p the business model is very well run at this company and the yields over three percent so you know target’s actually a really really attractive dividend stock that’s why i picked up some some shares here recently and um so far the stock’s starting to come back just

In the past few trading days up about six percent but yeah i think that’s just a i like that as a you know thrown in the filing cabinet they’ve done well with uh their in-store pickup too you go to the in-store pickup it’s it’s quite busy usually so um yeah i’ve admitted nothing but very very impressed with target over time fintech here today this is strange very

Very strange so you know i’m looking at this and some of these stocks are starting to trade like penny stocks basically you know you look at coin you look at a firm you look at square look at the moves you know a coin 13 a firm 12 square 11 percent i mean these stocks are simply moving like penny stocks i mean it’s it’s it’s insane to see how violent these fintechs

Are and a lot can be dependent upon what happens with the price of bitcoin for some of these stocks but um obviously a firm really doesn’t have much to do with that that’s you know the whole buy now pay later movement but uh it’s just amazing how much traders are throwing these stocks around right now and how much they are seen as just kind of like a almost like a

Call option put option on the market nonetheless meanwhile paypal is asleep paypal makes this one percent move which kind of keeps in line with the market here today it actually underperformed the nasdaq a little bit but i’m like geez paypal’s asleep meanwhile these other ones just went beast mode but you know at the same time i’m sure if it’s a red day those ones

Will get absolutely slaughtered and that’s just the way they’re trading they’re trading like penny stocks right now and um that’s what wall street’s doing in these big fintechs now at this point time you know who’s sneaking up on everybody right now uh kathy wood’s arc invest it’s just very very sh very quietly arc has just gone up like almost 20 just in a matter

Of a few trading days which whenever i think about arc invest and i think about like well you know if they’re doing well or bad i always think about the new 2x leveraged uh kathy woods situation right so this is a 2x leverage on kathy woods etf essentially and look at this just in the past few trading days this baby’s up almost 40 like 42 43 just in the past few

Trading days and i think between this new and think about this for a moment imagine you’re a trader right you’re a trader in the market this new 2x leverage kathy wood situation is almost like your new holy grail and the reason being is the moves are so crazy this is a matter of a few trading days a matter of few trading days and this baby’s up almost 43 like you

Know people dream about a 43 return in a year right and that baby just gave it to you in a matter of a few days right now it can take it all away obviously if if the market starts to sink you know nasdaq goes down obviously it’s not going to do well but the way i look at this is seeing a product like that in the market it’s going to make wall street want to trade

A lot of her stocks even more because imagine a situation it could lead to possible manipulation situations because think about it imagine you’re a big wall street firm you load up on the 2x etf essentially right now you’re almost incentivized to try to bid up some of the kathy wood stocks in the meantime right and get some momentum going there meanwhile you know

Obviously the 2x leverage goes beast which is your main position you cash out of that then maybe you could do something like a sarc play a sarcasm at this time flip that money into sarc then go ahead this is maybe a little high level stuff but then go ahead flip the money into sarc so now you’re basically shortened in the kathy wood etf then i’ll send you pull

Your money out of those other stocks i wouldn’t be surprised if wall street does that come on man you think they’re not doing that you think they don’t want to do this stuff like that come on man there’s a lot of money to be had there you know these hedge funds got a lot of money you know 42 percent in a matter of a few days isn’t isn’t a joke is and then you

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Flip that into sarc you pull your money out of those stocks they sink nasdaq sinks man come on man okay there’s some stuff going on there that’s all i say about that and it kind of keeps that at the center of the universe also if you’re planning on let’s say a bull run whether it be for a month or a few months or something like that man you know this is going

To be something that attracts a lot of traders over time right now you want to talk about uh flipping flapjack and strange and don’t buy into this situation okay but housing stocks all win beast mode here today kb home updates percent ccs up seven percent rocket of the six percent a total of five percent you know um on a day like today because so many stocks go

Up it leads to a situation where some of these sectors can can obviously increase quite dramatically and we see that with housing stocks today it doesn’t mean housing is magically fixed or oh we’re going to go on a bull run for real estate now no nothing’s changed in real estate it’s looking as bad as ever um probably going to get much worse over the next 6-12

Months and that’s the situation there and so but but you know when you see some momentum in the market if you see the 10-year maybe go down a bit everybody gets real excited and housing stocks go up but it’s like come on man slow down slow down calm down this is really good news i love this oil and gas stocks down massively again here today conoco phillips five

And a half percent marathon oil four point six percent chevron three point six percent shell and exxon both three percent plus on those we love to see that we need to see oil commodities everything go down now the moves in these oil and gas stocks has been pretty extreme look at this conical phillips in the past 11 trading days has dropped almost 29 welcome to

The market crash welcome to the market crash oil and gas stocks i know everybody was that was playing those and was laughing at everybody that’s been losing in tech stocks and everything like that well you know you got to be careful who you’re laughing at man because next thing you know everybody’s going to be laughing at you and um yeah everybody obviously in

The last a month or two has been piling into these oil and gas stocks and shot them up to you know very high levels and now they are just falling off a cliff like you know 29 11 trading days i’m on a big gas company like that oil and gas company like conoco phillips geez that’s quite a drop look at marathon marathon oil in the past 11 trading days is down almost

32 percent 32 percent in 11 trading days i mean the moves this is what i try to explain to people about commoditized industries man the moves are dramatic and the thing is that you only have so much good time and at the end of the day no one wants oil to do well other than maybe people that are playing oil stocks the government doesn’t want oil to do well no one

Wants oil to do well to be quite frank other than maybe i don’t know opec and people that own oil oil stocks everybody else is rooting against this entire economy roots against oil and so it’s just not a it’s just not a good thing right chevron even a big beast like chevron right a very well diversified business model outside of just uh you know strictly trying

To pull oil out of the ground or something like that chevron’s down over 21 in the past 11 trading days so these moves have been quite violent now this next slide i want to show you this is a very very important slide and the reason this is so important is because some folks think like um you know like oil and gas stocks or the play if you are in a recession or

Going into recession or something like that so look at this this next slide this shows you chevron’s stock price in the financial crisis right and when it was still a lot of confusion and president bush and and this the treasury secretary hank polson and you had ben bernanke at the fed when everybody was still in denial about if we were going the recession oil did

Very very well in stocks like chevron exxon mobil all those stocks did very very well as soon as we had really confirmation of oh we’re going into recession oil started to spike down and so didn’t every single oil and gas stock out there now meanwhile the market bottomed right here right market bottomed right there and look at how poor chevron stock did over that

Next let’s call a year and a half or so meanwhile countless other stocks went up 50 60 70 80 100 150 200 percent over that time as the market went beast mode back over that that year and a half after you you bought into the market and chevron like you know hardly did anything and that’s for most of the oil and gas stocks so the fact is if you are getting a confirmed

Recession it does not mean oil stocks are going to do well at all and actually they’ll stay unlikely a weakened place even when the market starts to bounce back and other stocks will be going beast mode while oil and gas stocks are sitting there crying that’s just the way it works man now other commodities are skyrocketing down skyrocketing down that’s a funny one

But no this is this is great for the market we need to see this oats look at this 11 down today natural gas down eight and a half percent natural gas been moving down sharply corn down five percent wheat down three and a half percent silver down dang it silver stupid silver uh wti down gold down and lumber down we need to see this continue on with these commodities

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You know obviously if you’re talking if you want to tackle inflation we have to see these babies continue to come down again and again and again look at oak futures oats just in the month of june are down over 20 percent this is obviously good for a company like oatley we need to see prices come down and begin to get more realistic so those future contracts especially

In 2023 can be at not insane prices and oatley will be in a position where their margins will be able to expand and they can do better so every like i said everybody roots for these commodities to go down they’ve been in this massive bull cycle for depending upon what commodity for about a year year and a half now and as with all bull markets they do come to an

End and uh pain comes and i think that’s what is coming in commodities future here now this is important here what you’re looking at is the market returns in midterm years and basically the market in in midterm years on average the market does very well toward the end of the year essentially that’s just like factually how it’s played out throughout time okay all

Other years you’re a little more consistent throughout time and it’s kind of like up up up right but midterm years it’s really october november december is when you really get those gains in midterm years and going into that you get a lot of volatility now we’ll see how this year shakes out because this is a weird year because we’re like down like we’re like down

Here as of right now right somewhere in there so if we’re gonna make any type of bull run holy smokes man it’s going to have to be pretty vicious in the back half of this euro but it is just something to keep in mind in midterm years you get a lot of volatility in the front half of the year and many times the market will actually decline in the front half of the

Year when you when you’re essentially in a midterm election year all right in midterms or in november just so everybody knows okay no an analyst from jp morgan says the stock market is gonna rally 27 to a record high you know this is a pretty big uh put your put your neck out there situation okay so basically they’re expecting the s p to end the year at 4 800 a

Rally of nearly 30 percent their bullish thesis is this they believe diplomatic solutions will improve in the ukraine russia situation in the second half of the year and alleviate some inflationary pressures that would be good inflation will begin to slow in the latter half of 22. i agree with that and if we see commodities keep going the route they’re going so far

In june we’re definitely going to see that an influx of cash into the markets due to a record low investor positioning will push stocks higher definitely a possibility but investors really want to see inflation come down so if inflation comes down then investors are going to feel more likely to invest that have been sitting on the sideline attractive risk reward

Situations will entice investors yes there’s a lot of stocks out there that are smoking deals right now i’m talking everything’s from the bigs like meta right all in paypal all the way to you know small caps and mid caps and and there’s a there’s a lot of stocks that are a good deal right now the expectation is core pce inflation the fed’s preferred inflationary

Measure will drop to 2.9 annual rate in the second half of the year interesting now i think it’s important to you know look at also what folks that are like this are bullish on the market and whether that happens or not or it’s a mixture of that i think it’s important to look at these as well because when you’re in a very very scared market no one pays attention

To the bowl case no one pays attention to what could go right people when people are scared they only pay attention to what could go wrong very similar phenomenon to when the market is in euphoria mode and everything’s going up and up and up no one’s paying attention to the the person that’s really like waving waving the flag and saying hey we could have some

Problems ahead man you know look at this look at this because everybody’s in that euphoria mode and so right now we’re in a super scared market consumer confidence is super low investor confidence is around the lowest we’ve ever seen and when you have things like that people only are listening to what could go wrong what could be wrong in the stock market what do

We have for more bad news coming rather than you know listening to both sides the bowler and the bear case and i think that’s important i think you’ve got to listen to both sides at all times in the market otherwise you get lost into a world of becoming a permabull or a perma-bear and you know the other one’s healthy but by the way if you’re gonna be one or the

Other be a perma bowl because that pays off way more handsomely over the long term than being a permabear always remember that hope you guys enjoyed this as always thank you so much for joining me i appreciate you much love and have a great day

Transcribed from video
They Just Lied to You | The Market Reveals Truth By Financial Education

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