They Tricked Us | Stock Market Collapse Update

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Well folks there’s a whole lot going on today i gotta show you there’s some interesting stuff that is happening in this market right now some things are i call it a smoke in mirrors that are going on here today okay i’m gonna show you a little smoke and mirror action um i’m gonna show you we’re going to talk about is a day like this real is there anything that can be

Taken from a day like today and some news that broke here today that i want to share with you guys that is a turning point in the stock market collapse which we know how devastated the market has been this year it has been pretty much the roughest year about ever in terms of the first five months a year we all know that and a lot of people are wondering like are we

Getting to that turning point yet is that happening so i want some to share some thoughts about a day like today in regards to that okay so first thing i want to start out here is looking at the nasdaq so nasdaq has just been in a vicious vicious down cycle this entire year and it came back for a bit there but then it was just down down down worse than ever right

Has a good day finally today one and a half percent and you know we’re looking at this and everybody’s like oh my gosh finally can we breathe for a day and i gotta say like you know when you’re just in one of these incredibly vicious markets where the market just seems to go down day after day after day after day week after week nasdaq’s been down seven straight

Weeks i think that dao has been down eight straight weeks i mean that’s almost two months of just straight downward action in the market right i mean it’s like can we get a breath for a minute like please like can we just you know it’s like you ever swim in a pool and you’re trying to swim under water for a long time and it’s like oh you just gotta come up and get

Some some breath right that’s what a day like today feels like it’s like just give us a break for a day can we at least have a day here that’s just been insane right the apostles having a green day as well which we all know how bad the russell’s been hurt the dow’s having a great day two percent you might say what the heck’s going on here this is a little strange

Why is the dow having such a great day here today why is it out performing the other indexes well i’ll show you exactly why this is happening look no further than jp morgan stock here today i have a little banking watch list essentially of a few of the biggest banks out there this stock’s up over seven percent today an incredible day for jp morgan jp morgan’s a

300 something billion dollar market cap so if that baby’s moving like that it’s gonna help bring up the entire dow essentially but it’s not just that it pulled bank of america along with it bank of america is up six percent plus today bank of america is nearly a 300 billion dollar market cap wells fargo and everybody’s least favorite bank uh almost a you know this

One’s over 150 billion dollar market cap this one’s up well over five percent today and why are they up so much today well this is a reason jp morgan came out today and they said the us consumer is doing just fine just fine they say uh you know america’s largest bank expects credit losses to remain low due to higher cash balances they’re saying okay so essentially

Everybody took this is obviously great news for jp morgan and for the banks here today and that’s a group that’s been hit pretty darn hard to be quite honest no here’s the thing i think it’s very important for everybody to understand about this okay is when it comes to credit losses especially right everything’s fine as long as people have jobs that’s what this

Whole game at the end of the day comes down to jobs it always has and always will do people have jobs if people have jobs and unemployment’s super low credit is not going to be an issue but as soon as that shift changes and also when you start getting people laid off and people lose jobs things like that that’s when that credit card is not paid that’s when that

Auto loan is not paid that’s when that rent’s late that’s when that mortgage is late okay that’s when you get in that cycle okay and so yeah if unemployment stays at three to four percent for you know uh the next five years and i believe me credit losses will be low in that sort of environment but if also unemployment goes to four percent five percent six percent

Seven percent that’s a whole different scenario and and as soon as that shift happens if that shift happens which i think is a pretty decent probability and the reason being is companies are are just not nearly as profitable and when you’re a public company especially which most big companies are public companies you have to make profits like that’s what’s expected

Right and so you can’t have your profitability going down down down otherwise your board of director is going to be on you and you know why your board of directors on you because the investor base is going to be on you right and the investor base is who decides the board of directors the board of directors who’s excited who decides the ceo and the cfo and the of

These companies right and so a lot of these companies could go and they say well where’s their business biggest expense usually but almost always their biggest expense their biggest controllables is workers employees and so you can get into an environment over the next six to 12 months where you get a lot of job losses you get a lot of job losses the credit losses

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They’re going to spike up that’s just the way it is and especially if you’re in an environment where the business cycle is not booming because then those folks that maybe get laid off from that company or whatever they can’t find a job out there at that time so it’s a very different environment than what we’ve been in for the last many many years now where people

Could you know get fired from a job or laid off or just easily find another job like it’s cake right that that sort of environment is is been a little unrealistic when we’ve kind of gotten um a little i guess you can say oh it’s the best word for a little spoiled right where you can just lose your job and go easily get another one those days could be coming to

An end as somebody that started in the workforce in 2008 2009 i know how hard it was to get a job any job right and i know i saw people that had college degrees trying to get jobs just to you know 30k a year just put food on the table right and that’s what happens when you’re in a recession and especially a vicious recession like that one was that i’m not sure

We’re going to go into in one of those sorts of recessions but here’s something kind of food for thought there and so you know you can’t get too darn excited about you know that whole situation there okay now you look at the heat map and there’s something very very interesting that’s going on today okay something very interesting first is the biggest company in

The world big daddy of them all apple well it’s been between them and saudia rompko lately but apple up almost four percent today this sucks having a great day i mean it’s it’s um it’s pulling uh almost it’s trying to pull almost the entire market up and you look out there and it’s like man you can’t find anything better than it can’t find anything better than that

Stock here today other than obviously the banks right the banks have just been tearing it up today and so banks are doing great apple’s doing great microsoft’s doing great so the biggest of the bigs having a comeback day here today also if you look at retail you got walmart having a good day costco costco report earnings later this week we’ll see what happens there

And we’ll see uh costco such a great company but the one issue i’ll say about costco you know they the great thing for costco is they have huge pricing power the one bad thing for costco is that it’s a company that’s 100 dependent upon price right and so the thing with costco if somebody if they go up 10 cents on a case of water everybody notices that you know

Because everybody’s so price sensitive that shops at costco even though a lot of people that have money actually shop at costco but that’s the whole thing about costco right so if that roll of paper towels is all sudden 50 cents more expensive uh people are like oh what the heck’s costco you’re going up on price what’s up with this right and so that’s one thing

I will say um about a costco and costco in terms of a lot of profits that that’s usually helped by all the silly things they sell i don’t call them silly things but like random stuff that they’ll have throughout the store the next thing you know you’re putting in your basket that you never you never had planned to buy that right you’re going in for specific things

Maybe some some drinks maybe some food items right maybe some you know like toilet paper paper towels tissues things like that but then next thing you know you’re walking down the aisles and there’s all this random crap and you’re like oh look at this blender over here oh i might use this blender let me get this and that’s that’s when people are feeling good right

You know those things sell very very well the amount of money i spent at costco or sam’s club over time when buying stupid stuff that it’s just like you know you’re walking through the store and it’s like i never had anticipated buying this is a pretty large number and it happens for a lot of folks but that that’s all fine when people have extra money to spend or

When they’re feeling confident right if if you if you flip that situation those sales aren’t quite happening so it’s something to kind of keep in mind there okay now when i saw that i saw apple doing great i saw those banks doing great i thought about berkshire hathaway that was the first stock that kind of came to my mind and the reason being is berkshire hathaway

Is usually huge invest into the banks and um if i recall i think they just invested more money in city recently which i think that was up like seven percent today but obviously apple’s their biggest position so that one just kind of came to mind is up two percent here today now look at this okay this is kind of a bubble map here and um interesting deer after

The bad day it had friday coming back with one of the is one of the best stocks in the entire s p 500 today john deere and uh that’s pretty interesting and you look at raw stores that one’s way out performing and you got take two interactive way out performing but you know obviously the financials are just really really just having a great day here today it’s a

Financials day to shine this is a dow chart now what was interesting about this by the way jp morgan by far and away the best dow stock here today what’s interesting to me is the the second biggest lager i could find is home depot second biggest lager home depot is just the numbers have been extraordinary at home depot but they just can’t get out of their own way

When it comes to stock price and you know i got a housing watch list here’s a deal no one believes in housing for the next year and i don’t blame them i don’t believe in housing for the next year yeah you know i think i think the story is just going to get worse and worse and worse with housing for the next at least six to 12 months i don’t see it getting better

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I only see it getting becoming a worse and worse story where it goes from these incredible numbers to like oh these numbers aren’t so incredible anymore to like oh these numbers are bad um and that’s why in wall street’s telling you the same exact story essentially look at rh down three three and a half percent today ccs down two and a half percent toll brothers

Down two percent plus toll brothers it has earnings i think in about 24 hours from now if i recall okay you know we’ll hear what they have to say about new orders coming in and the worst part is i think that’s just a start i think it’s going to get a lot worse over the next quarter to kb home down over two percent rock it down one and a half percent you know almost

Everything housing related down lows is trying to eke out again today we’ll see if it holds uh by the end of trading but but here’s the deal with housing no one believes in this everybody expects it to get worse and when everybody just expects us to get worse and worse and worse you know there’s just no buyers for these sorts of stocks and you can continue to get

Them to hit new 52-week lows in new 52-week well lows because who wants to step in housing right now like seriously who wants to step in housing right now i don’t know anybody that would want to step into those stocks right now even at 52 it glows because no one wants to step into a story where they know it’s going to get worse for at least probably the next year

And with housing you never know how far it can go you never know if it can go down for years with an s at the end of it right and i’m not going to predict that but damn i’m going to predict that housing is going to weaken considerably over the next 6-12 months we’re already seeing it start to play out and so no one wants to play those stocks heck no everybody’s

Looking at those i like dude nah maybe talk to me in 2023 about housing stocks and maybe at that point if these babies continue to go down um you know maybe maybe then it’s worth kind of jumping in but no one wants to step in those right now when when you know everything is just expect to get worse quarter after quarter month after month after month right now right

Now one of my favorite things to track right now is lumber the only thing that’s doing worse and this might be honest stock when it comes to lumber uh down 41.5 in the past three months lumbers is getting absolutely devastating and this is that this goes back to housing once again you know no one believes in housing you guess what lumber is not going to do well

In that sort of environment this is a horrible sign this is a horrible sign okay kathy woods arc invest is down today it’s down one i’ve seen it down like one and a half percent one percent today at this particular screenshot is down 1.27 the reason this is such a horrible sign and by the way this is most of our other biggest investments uh in the arc fund the

Reason that’s such a horrible sign is when you have the indexes really green like today you have to have a green day you can’t you know for for an etf like that you can’t be red you can’t be red with if all the indexes if the dow is green russell’s green nasdaq’s green s p 500 screen you can you can’t have your etf read no way man no way and so you know the only

Way you should be read on a day like today if all the indexes are green is if you’re short the market and or you got put options outside of that you should you know this is one of those days you gotta you gotta get a green day and especially you’re down one one and a half percent or so that’s just um you know that’s just not ideal and so if you’re thinking about

Kathy wood and kind of the this looks bad you know a day like today looks bad when folks look at that and like you’re having a red day when everything’s green like what are you gonna have when it’s a red day like double triple and that’s just the that’s just the predicament kathy woodnork invest is in right now where you know these stocks just can’t get a break

Anywhere no one’s excited to buy these stocks at all at all okay something else i saw that is a little more bad news here big tech so here’s the deal tesla’s underperforming the market today facebook’s underperforming the market today amd’s underperforming the market today paypal’s underperforming and two it’s underperforming nvidia is underperforming and these

Are are significant under performance netflix is red shopify is red and amazon’s red today okay and so what that right there shows you essentially is there’s still no appetite for big tech stocks in this market outside of maybe apple and microsoft on a given day right but outside of those two big dogs people still don’t want to take any sort of risk in shopify

Any sort of risk in netflix and tesla nvidia amd any any of those stocks amazon the great amazon no one wants any piece of those stocks right now and the reason being is people still feel investors and when i say people i mean investors wall street they still feel like those stories are going to get worse over the next 6 to 12 months and i gotta say i kind

Of agree i think all those stories will get a little worse over the next six to twelve months now as a buyer in the market doesn’t mean you can’t start to step in and buy these stocks if you think they’re significantly discounted and you think they’re great pricing you know i’ve just started recently stepping in buying some amazon shares which you know me i’ve

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Never i’m an amazon buyer but gosh you know these shares have gotten significantly discounted and i look at where their company’s going over the next three and five years not over the next three and five months and so i’ve actually started to step in and buy some amazon stock now and so i think if you see some deals out there you got to take advantage of those

Opportunities but it doesn’t take away from the fact that almost all those stories will likely get worse over the next six to 12 months for every single one of those companies every single one and um including even tesla so that story will get worse over the next six to 12 months than it’s been in the past the shopify store will continue to get worse netflix is

Going to probably continue to get a little worse but not dramatically worse and so amd nvidia those stories will get worse over the next six to 12 months that you’re going from like this ultra hype excitement cycle with these great growth numbers so that’s just going to be coming down and coming down and so um you know that’s kind of the situation you’re going from

A lot of excitement in these incredible numbers to the stories just kind of get worse and worse and worse and that’s why these stocks can’t even keep up with the indexes on a day like today because wall street’s just like now we’re not jumping in those when the storage is going to get worse for the next 6-12 months for those talks right and to echo that sentiment

I did this poll on my instagram and um you know this is obvious just retail folks following me this isn’t like wall street’s doing this poll this is just retail investors right and i said prediction time red or green week for the stock market this week and obviously there’s more people that are bearish on the market they’re bullish on the market right now and uh

Even from the retail side and so i think what that shows you there is ultimately there’s just a disbelief in the market right now that this baby can go up and i understand that and the reason i understand that is because we’ve had seven straight weeks of the nasdaq down we had eight straight weeks the dow down and when you just keep kent and punched in the face

You just think you’re gonna keep getting punched in the face right and like that’s just the way it is and so you know i i kind of understand like the the pessimism in the market right now from the wall street side and from the retail side because wall street’s looking at it from the next six to 12 month numbers and they’re like i think all these companies are gonna

Get worse the story’s gonna get worse and then from the retail investors side they’re looking at this and like i just keep getting hit and hit so i got nothing to be bullish about right now and so that’s how you that’s why you look at something like the aia investor sentiment right now and it’s been it’s been overwhelmingly bearish overwhelmingly bearish uh for

Quite some time now and that’s exactly why right now you look at something like the retail trader investor list i have of these stocks and i mean look at how many are red today on a day when it looks like all the indexes are going to be green you know the majority of those stocks are red the majority and all these other ones are underperforming the only one that’s

Outperformed as a chef today and that’s it that’s it you know palantir is back under eight again and so what this shows you here when you look at these retail trader investor stocks here is there’s just no excitement from the retail side specifically and so you’re looking at at the moves in the market right now on a day like today you’re not getting any positive

Real positive momentum in big tech which means wall street’s not really ready to jump in you’re looking at retail trader investor stocks the majority of those are red on a green day those those folks aren’t excited and so you’re looking at this and it’s just like and so the question is what can you derive from a day like today and the the answer i have to you is

Is actually a day late to this to a day like today is actually bearish it’s kind of like a foul ball it’s hard to really go either way in this scenario and let’s say a day like today’s really bearish or a day like today’s really bullish i kind of have to call it a foul ball which in baseball is you know when when the ball doesn’t um you know stay inside the lines

Between the the first base and and third base essentially and um it’s it’s kind of a foul ball day in the market today where just everybody’s looking and they’re like i don’t really know where this market’s going but i would tell you if i had to lean one way or another um you know a day late to this today is actually more bearish than bullish even on a green day

Because i’m looking at the pricing action these stocks and it’s just disappointing i guess you can say very very disappointing as far as me you know me i’m staying focused on long-term buying companies i love for the long term so hope you guys enjoyed this as always if you’re looking to join my private discord chat my private stock group get access to all the

Course curriculums become a member in there with the other six and seven figure members check out the description area you can apply there to become a member okay much love as always and have a great day

Transcribed from video
They Tricked Us | Stock Market Collapse Update By Financial Education

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