This is so bad

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Oh this is bad and it is getting ugly yes folks we gotta talk about a whole lot that’s going on this market i gotta talk about several different stocks in this video here today i’m even in this video believe it or not i’m gonna share my perspective on gold in this video okay yes you heard me right gold uh in recent events that have happened out there a lot of

People want to know my opinion on gold in this video so i’m going to share my opinion on that as well i’m going to show you through a lot of different charts in this video and kind of show you what’s going on in the market it’s actually pretty unbelievable at this stage on some of these stocks and how bad they’ve gotten hit okay paypal’s starting out here might have

Bought the stocks today and we might discuss that in this video as well uh i might about a few shares a 4p of 25 now for paypal which owns paypal and venmo right i mean look at this it’s down to 138 billion dollar mark cap now the stock hit a new another 52 week low it’s like the stock breaks a new 52 week low every single day and when you get into a stock like this

Right it’s a it’s a falling knife right and folks are looking at this and like where does it end for paypal right and i can tell you it’s pretty it’s rather soon let’s put it that way it’s rather soon i don’t know if today’s absolute bottom i’m not going to stick my head out there like that but i can tell you paypal is getting pretty darn close to a bottom when

You start talking about a forward pe of 25 for this stock you start to get down to levels that it just becomes silly you know like silly pricing essentially when you start to get in that range of silly pricing for a company like paypal like there’s no reason paypal should trade at a 4p of 25. paypal should usually trade at a forward p of anywhere from 35 to 45.

Anything above 45 you start getting rich on paypal especially if you start pushing 55 to 60 in those ranges you know that’s like um you know getting up there but a 4p at 25 is just rather silly and so at some point valuation has to matter regardless of what the fed does or doesn’t do or all that mumbo jumbo and all the scary stuff that everybody talks about all

The time regardless of that at some point in time valuations start to have to matter again in a stock like paypal ends up you know obviously prospering in a situation like that right this is might be the most amazing thing you’re gonna see in this whole video i got a lot of pretty cool stuff to show you but this this might be the most amazing thing okay look at

This so july 7th of 2019 paypal stock was 120 a share which is above where that stock is at now think about all the progress paypal’s made in his business model over the past several years think about the balance sheet the place of balance sheets in now right think about everything that has transpired in paypal’s favor over the past several years and this stock

Is trading under what it was basically uh you know back in 2019 that’s nothing short of extraordinary i know they use that expression maybe too much but to me that’s nothing short of extraordinary when we were talking about paypal’s trading under what it was in 2019 you’re getting down to levels that are just um like i said these are these levels for paypal now

Are just getting to be quite honest silly silly right when it comes to paypal this is a company in 2019 when we just looked at a stock price right uh in 2019 this company did 17 billion dollars of revenue in 2022 they expect to do 29 billion dollars of revenue that’s the average analyst estimate that’s not even the bullish case 29 billion dollars and 22 they’re

Supposed to do it is 17 billion so you know this company is basically supposed to do 12 billion plus more in revenue than they did back in 2019 and the stock price is lower is lower today than it was back in 2019 that that’s crazy okay that’s when i talk about we’re getting down to silly levels on these stocks now right if you look at eps in 2019 paypal did two

Dollars and seven cents of eps two dollars and seven cents in 22 the average analyst estimate once again this isn’t even the bullish scenario the average analyst estimate for paypal is 4.78 of eps so this stock is trading for less than it did back then yet the eps is like you know way over doubled up and uh the revenue should be up 12 billion plus dollars versus

Back then you know we’re getting down to silly levels forward p of 20 it’s five in the stock uh you know uh once again i i don’t know if we’re at an absolute bottom here today for paypal but i can tell you we’re getting um we’re getting pretty darn close because these levels are you know you can only go unsustainably low for so long in the market before uh valuations

Start to matter and and things have to you know flip essentially and uh one thing i will say is you know i just started buying the stock here in the past week or so right and that’s i would say if you want to look at a little more of a bullish indicator for the overall markets the fact that i’m actually buying a large cap stock is a pretty good sign because it’s

Been quite a while since i bought large cap stocks i think the last time i bought large cap stocks for the most part was probably back in maybe december of 2020 sometime around then right because uh just a lot of large caps has just been trading really really rich so the fact that i’m actually out there buying actively right now a large cap stock i think it um you

Know speaks volumes to kind of where valuations have gone and how much a lot of these stock prices have come down you want to know another stock that i feel is a phenomenal deal right now and it’s a mega cap look at this one okay the meta meta platforms you know this stock is getting down to silly levels and i hated their guidance i did you know i didn’t like that

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Earnings that guidance and everything it was it was no bueno but at the end of the day you we can’t deny that this stock’s getting down to silly valuations the p e ratio is now 15 are you kidding me for meta 15 pe like you know once again these type of valuations they don’t last for long i can promise you that you know under a 600 billion dollar mark cap now volume

Has been ridiculous for this stock i took this you know an hour or two before the trading day even ended 70 million shares that traded the average volume is 25 million volumes off the charts the trading activities off the charts the pe has gone down to ridiculously low levels that’s only sustainable for so long and this stock’s going to have to come up and so now

We’re in this situation right with meta where this stock is uh honestly just to be quite frank a steal deal even after i hated their earnings it’s still i can’t deny the fact that this isn’t like an easy money stock over the next few years it absolutely is if you look at this stock prior to roanoke right in ju in january 12th january 12th of 2020 this talk was 222

It’s trading under that today under that today i mean that’s crazy right look at this so you know january of 2020 so that comes off the year 2019 2019 it is 70 billion dollars of revenue for meta right this year they’re expected average analyst estimate to do 135 billion dollars of revenue no that’s not even the bulls scenario for this stock 135 billion dollars

Right if my math serves me correct that’s 65 billion dollars more they’re expected to do in 22 than 2019 basically that’s almost uh you know a double up of their revenue there’s almost a double up up of their revenue in a matter of few years like think about that for a moment and the stock price is trading lower after all that is played out right and this is a

Company that you know at the end of the day they own two of the most profitable businesses in the world facebook and instagram plus they obviously own whatsapp which is huge and then they’re the they’re in the prime position for the metaverse like there’s nobody that’s even can even stand up to them right now like they’re clearly out in front of everybody not

Just out in front of everybody but out in front of everybody by a mile and so this is a stock i’m looking at that’s at a a p e a 15 now and with their balance sheet with their business with their business models with their future business models and everything you know this stock is just trading at uh silly valuations now at this point in time and it can only

Stay this low for so long and i’m telling you when this baby flips it’s going to flip uh pretty darn good and this is one of those stocks i’m an owner of i would be actively buying it if it wasn’t for the fact that i still got to have some capital around because small cap season’s about to start so i don’t know what could happen with the chef in the short term or

Corsair gaming or honest or sdc or any of those stocks but you know if it wasn’t for the fact that i still got to wait for all these earnings to come out i would actively be buying the stock here today because it’s a it’s a steal deal let’s put it that way right yeah you know this is a great piece that was put out in january of 2019 so basically if you if you didn’t

Know mark got really rough in october november and into december of 2018 and at one point we were on pace for the worst december in the history of december’s in the stock market in 2018 lucky enough the last week of december market started to bounce back so we didn’t technically have the worst december ever but uh it’s funny they say the markets are behaving like

An irrational teenager and um yeah i mean just to be quite frank the market gets like this from time to time where it just starts you know getting really irrational and that the beauty with being a stock picker is you can take advantage of irrational pricing you know we have a rational pricing going on for paypal right now we have irrational pricing for facebook

Going on right now meta i don’t know why i keep calling that meta okay it’s just too many years of that being programmed in my brain uh we have irrational pricing on those stocks going on right now and obviously in the small cap spaces crazy rational prices and the thing is it only lasts for so long it does not stay like that forever things do have to end right

Now yarndini i love yarndini but they’re slacking man they haven’t updated this since the 28th i’m like come on yarandini i love you guys man i appreciate you guys putting these charts together but uh you know it’s been a little while like let’s update these charts please but nonetheless if you look at s p 400 mid caps we’re trading unsustainably low right now

And uh we’re due for a massive bounce in in mid caps essentially the market can only stay in low ranges so long if you look at this right there’s only three you know i never like to look at uh you know a stock market crash scenario uh because it’s kind of you know like all the metrics get super messed up in a major recession or crash and it makes you know things

Kind of look weird so normal economic times right um we’ve had three scenarios where mids have fallen this low one was in the one i just spoke about the december 2018 crash right uh well i don’t want to call it a crash it was it was a correction we had another scenario like that play out in uh 2011 2012-ish we traded you know uh below where we’re at right now and

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Then 2002 2003 we traded in here for just a little bit like a very small amount of time essentially and so nonetheless what you can take away from this is mid caps are trading ridiculously cheap this is not sustainable and eventually we’re going to have to bounce up bounce up and get more into the 16 to 19 range which is where we should be for mid caps 16 to 19. and

What that means is likely there’s going to be a lot of mid cap stocks that make some pretty strong moves over the next year or next couple years okay small caps are even a whole different story small caps are trading so dang cheap it’s ridiculous so there’s only two real scenarios where we’ve had small caps trading this cheap in any time in modern history one was

Uh 2002 2003 we barely touched down to these levels during that time period and the other time period was 2011. we’re even below where we were in 2018 uh correction the december 2018 correction right and so there’s only two time periods in in modern times basically where we got down to these sorts of levels for small caps which is just ridiculously unsustainably

Low and i i put these arrows up here too because just like you know this is an unsustainable market when you start trading let’s say above 20 for mid caps you know for forward ps and you know you’re at unsustainably high levels and you’re going to have to come down and you’re only going to be able to trade up there so long and you’re going to have to come down

You’re going to come down hard and fast right and with small caps same exact thing if you’re trading you know over 20 over 21 especially you’re trading way too high and you’re gonna have to you’re due for a massive uh basically come down and uh it’s it’s rough and you but you know like if you ever see small caps trading at 20 plus forward ps you know hey you know

You should be a little concerned um and that’s obviously where we got up to kind of going into 2021 and um we were due for a you know a come down the difference is we have come down so much we’ve we’ve come down too much now and now we’re trading at valuations we haven’t seen in like a decade plus and so that just kind of gets a little silly but you don’t get these

Time periods very often and when you do get these time periods you do have to take advantage and if you don’t take advantage you’re just missing out on a whole lot of money okay no some metrics i will say are improving that we looked at you know about a month ago or so for google trends and i think these are really important to kind of watch and see how they play

Out over the next few months okay so something i like to look at is like home loan for instance right and home loan really dropped off a cliff now i will say there’s been a nice recovery very recently for home loan so that is um you know if at the end of the day the market’s core worries are around two things right one is the fed that’s the main worry the second

Worry is around you know could we go into an economic recession or something like that an actual underlying economy falters and so these are sorts of things i like to look at that’s kind of like four looking indicators like are we in some trouble or something like that so home loan has definitely been coming back we saw a huge dip part of that’s probably inventory

Related the holidays and people just you know spending time with their families and things like that the third thing is i think rona went so crazy in the back half of december and into the beginning of january that i think it i think it honestly hurt the overall economy and i think it hurt everything i don’t care if you’re talking about buying a home buying a car

Going out to eat uh anything i think i think it did some real damage to the economy in the short term the good news is ronan numbers are tan you know tanking through the floor now um and should continue to for the next one to two months and so that’s the good news when it comes to that that things are headed in the right direction but yeah home loan we have seen

Some promising things kind of coming back with home loan there if you look at car loan um we’ve been holding pretty decent a lot of car companies still have pretty low inventories and things like that and uh you know a lot of them aren’t even running ads as much right now because they don’t have the inventory to really push up sales so you know it’s been holding

Pretty decent recently i think that’s one to pay attention to as this year kind of transpires and hopefully that the chip shortage continues to alleviate and uh autos continue to you know get more in a you know a supply state and uh if you look at auto loan we’ve seen a you know a decent trend at least upward nothing crazy but at least things are trending the right

Way when it comes to that but these are very important google trends to watch over the next several months in my opinion and kind of keep track of them do they worsen do they get better for right now it looks like they’re getting better and so that’s definitely good news if you’re worried about the overall economy right because if no one’s buying homes no one’s

Buying cars no one’s going out there buying iphones or whatever right you’re something to be worried about by the way apple i still can’t get over the fact that they beat revenue by five billion dollars in last quarter like it’s just crazy to me like i i can’t get over that it’s just ridiculous right unemployment search term continues to stay very very low which

Is something obviously if you have any worries about the overall economy that is something you want to see you want to see unemployment search terms stay very very low and that’s exactly what we’re continuing to see play out and so that’s definitely good good news uh as far as that goes right no i want to speak about gold for a minute so gold is you know a lot of

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Folks have been asking questions about gold and kind of my two cents on this and things like that okay first off uh so i had a i had a accounting uh teacher or instructor in college and um you know he taught three levels of accounting and uh you know he was great he was a great instructor i love the guy i think he always had the best of intentions and he did a great

Job of you know taking me from a place i had no clue about income statements or balance sheets or cash flows and he took me to a place where i understood him on a very very high level but what i will say about that gentleman is man did he love gold if you think peter schiff pushes gold hard you should have been in my accounting instructors classes back in the day

Oh my gosh okay that was a whole other level of pushing a gold on on people and um you know i looked at i looked at gold and just kind of what it’s done since when i was taking those accounting courses back in you know two thousand eight nine ten and um you know 2009 gold was over a thousand right over a thousand here today think about all the money that’s been

Pumped in the system over the years think about all the time periods of fear and those sorts of things and gold’s at 1800 roughly today right you know at the end of the day when it comes to gold it’s just not a very good uh performing asset class it’s just not um you know and the tough thing for gold is gold really when it comes to gold really in order to buy in a

Gold you really have to be fearful you have to be fearful of what the markets are doing and you have to not believe in the dollar and a lot of those sorts of things right and that’s a lot of the thought process that goes through most people that buy gold they’re like you know uh i don’t call them like the doomsday crowd but they’re usually negative on the markets

They usually are are the folks that are going to say the fed’s always pumping too much money out there and all those sorts of things they’re going to speak very much in the same tone but the issue is gold is kind of the the boomer thing when it comes to uh you know that that mentality and nowadays with the with the newer generation on the come up right now right

I’m talking about the millennials and the new generations if they want to think negatively about the dollar and and those sorts of things what do they like to go to they don’t like to go to gold what they like to go to is bitcoin at the end of the day and it’s hard to fight that psychology and try to say gold’s the way when when most of the younger generation

That are that have money if they’re going to think about the dollar being devalued or the dollar doesn’t matter or or all these sorts of things they’re naturally going to want to end up putting their money in bitcoin they much rather buy bitcoin than they would want to buy gold and it’s hard to change that psychology it’s really hard to change that psychology in

Any meaningful way for the next generation and so when you could when you could you know talk about the fear tactics right in like you know why people should be scared and all these sorts of things and the dollar is going to collapse and all the ways that the gold bugs always talk the new generation hears that and if they believe that they don’t think i’m going

To go buy gold they think i’m gonna go buy bitcoin okay and so that’s why gold has such a trouble moving up nowadays in my opinion and why gold’s gone from you know 1 000 to 1800 you know what has gold gone up 80 or so since uh you know my accounting instructor back in the day was you know preaching about how great gold is that’s horrible that’s just horrible

Performance over the past 12 years or whatever 13 years that’s a horrible horrible performance and so i think that’s kind of some food for thought in this situation is most of the younger generation if they hear or they believe that type of stuff they’re like okay cool i’m going to buy bitcoin and so this is some kind of food for thought when it comes to that okay

Now uh i’ve caught my son blowing a bubble and so i thought man maybe we’re in a super bubble maybe i should sell out all my stocks but did i do that no i went ahead and i bought stocks here today i bought a 125 shares of paypal here today i’m going to continue to buy that one you know i think we’re pretty close to the bottom of that one but the heck if it keeps

Falling i’ll keep buying and uh they want to give me free money i’ll take free money that’s fine with me so anyways guys uh you know me uh mr by the dip so that’s what i always do hope you guys enjoyed this video as always we got a massive deal coming up for the private stock group financial fortress program this is the best time to take stock market investing

Serious that i’ve seen in uh a long time let’s just put it that way probably a decade so if you’re looking to get involved with the stock market learn everything that you need to possibly know about investing in stocks how to research stocks all those sorts of things i teach that in the program check out pin comment down there as soon as that deal drops we’ll send

It over to you much love as always and have a great day

Transcribed from video
This is so bad By Financial Education

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