When to Buy Back In

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How’s it going everybody this is btw bush the question is now that i sold all of my stocks i am 100 cash when am i gonna buy back in before i begin this is your typical disclaimer i am not a financial advisor whenever i talk about a stock it can go up or down these are my own opinions only and as always do your own thinking do your own research but whenever i talk

About these things i do put my own money into it this video is brought to you by weeble it’s a free trading app that i exclusively use to check out aftermarket data it’s free to sign up and not only this you can get one free share of stock as soon as you sign up and if you deposit more than 100 you get another free share stock check out my referral link down in

The video description below as you guys know i sold most of my stock on friday may 8th and over the weekend i made a video about it saying i sold all my stock and eventually on monday i did make good on what i promised on that video and i sold the remainder of my stock 22 or so on monday somehow it’s wonderful when the stock market behaves exactly like i said it

Would just a few days later but i have no crystal ball or anything i cannot see what it’s gonna do the next few days it could have just as well gone up right now the s p 500 is about minus two point three percent from when i sold it so to me this is not a really big move at all whatsoever even at the peak down of minus five percent it still wasn’t all that big a

Move to me so in my view the stock market did nothing really it didn’t plummet the initial video was really intended for a much more drastic drop something like 20 or more maybe even 50 percent and if it reaches minus 20 when i release that video i would have called that call a success so you guys commenting down below saying oh yeah congratulations you are you

Know fortune teller or something you know i i don’t think this is it at all further in this video i’m gonna talk about the exact timing that i think it’s gonna go down of course this is just a predictive statement here i really don’t know but at some point i want to make a prediction right my best guess out of everything that i know out of all the news stories

I read which i spend hours every day reading and i’m gonna make a prediction and we can see if it comes true or not now because i’m all out of the stock market there are a few things that caused me to come out of the stock market and there’s probably a few things that is going to get me to buy back in which is the actualization that it actually went down then i

Might start to look at it again but right now what really scares me because it hasn’t gone down yet i really am trying to convince you guys how did i come to this view that there’s so much danger on the stock market right now one of the things that really scares me is the meat processing plants struggling to reopen because their working conditions have so many

People in it so many people packed in if any one of them get sick they get transmitted all over the place and all of a sudden a lot of people in a single factory gets infected they have to shut it down and all of a sudden they cannot process all the pork or whatever just take a look at this headline a meat processing factory struggle to reopen government documents

Warn of shortages now if it’s just pork it doesn’t really matter i don’t even eat that much pork but this is indicative of what’s gonna happen in any industry that has a lot of people working in a single factory where there is no social distance they’re just standing next to each other shoulder to shoulder they’re just you know doing all the meat stuff maybe in

Chicken plants they do the same thing maybe in cow slaughtering houses they do the same thing any kind of meat places any kind of factory there’s going to be these issues where there might be an outbreak and this is what worries me the most the next thing that caused me to sell is berkshire hathaway doing somewhat really strange things because normally you would

See berkshire hathaway they keep on buying stock and then warren buffett always says you know he really likes to just buy stock and hold forever right and so the fact that he’s actually selling stuff it’s like really shocking you look at the airlines that he sold right over here american airlines sold all of the holdings this is this is a very rare thing delta

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Airlines southwest united airlines holding all of it he just liquidated completely all of it owing to the fact of this infection scare the outlook of the airline industry is really really bad for the long term this is why this is one of these black swan events so then it changes his market perspective on the entire stock market that’s why he sells that’s you

Know that’s what he says so first of all what he’s doing here before if you’ve been following berkshire hathaway is he usually tries to sell a little bit of it to try to get under the 10 threshold so that he doesn’t have to report right away and then after he sells a little bit then he quietly goes in the pack and sells almost all of it or you know you don’t

Know how much he’s gonna sell but this is what exactly he did for the airlines he sells a little bit get under that 10 and then he sells all of it so he’s doing the same thing for certain stocks i’m not saying that it’s absolutely he’s going to liquidate the entire holding of whatever he’s just got under 10 but in bank of america he just got under 10 maybe he’s

Going to sell the remainder of bank of america goldman sachs he just kind of like lopped off a huge chunk of what his holdings minus 84 from the last year end holding so this is a huge amount that he just sold off so all this liquidation what does it point to it just means he’s super duper bearish you know like whatever asset price right now it’s it seems like

It’s you know it came up a little bit so it’s like a really slow warning to people the red flags are up people have a huge chance to sell you have a like a week or two of asset prices bouncing back and it’s at a reasonable level a lot of people is not going to take huge losses if you invested in the snp because it’s only down like 10 percent so at this point

It might actually be a good point to sell because you’re not losing all that much and then you’re looking to lose a lot going forward if there is a dramatic drop which this event might just cause you just look at the unemployment number 33 million people by the way my last video said like 22 unemployment and then i went on to say one out of two americans is not

Working this is because not everyone is counted in the unemployment rate the unemployment rate does not count minors it does not count babies it does not count retired people senior citizens nor does it count people that haven’t looked for a job for a really long time so you might have a huge swath of the population that wasn’t counted in the unemployment numbers

When you go to say one out of two americans is not working you’re including the entire population here the third thing that really worries me that caused me to sell of course i didn’t know this at the time right this just came out the last few days is that the fed themselves the ones that are propping up the market is warning that there’s going to be a huge drop

There could potentially be a huge drop see look at this right here fed warns of significant hit to asset prices if crisis grows if crisis grows here and every inch of me feels like it will grow based on the reaction of the government policies based on how people are behaving in the united states just read this asset prices remain vulnerable to significant price

Declines should the pandemic take an unexpected course the economic fallout proved more adverse or financial systems strains re-emerge i definitely think this is going to be the case with all this people called it fudd right there are some things that makes me slightly unsure so that’s why i am not shorting the stock market or anything i always have this small

Probability in my head i think i am maybe 60 sure just a little more sure than parity that the stock market is going to go down but here is what’s making me slightly unsure is because when i look at the news nowadays more and more different investment groups are saying oh yeah there’s going to be impending doom so there’s so many people so many articles saying

Oh it’s coming so whenever i see too many people say the same thing that i initially said it kind of makes me worried because too many people think the same thing so based on this you can say various things such as this is gonna be a self-fulfilling prophecy because so many people think so it’s eventually gonna happen people start taking a defensive stand and

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Then it’s going to self-fulfill itself because people start selling it’s going to asset prices is going to go down and then more people sell etc etc in a big circle the second thing people like to say kind of opposite to this is that if so many people says this thing usually the market likes to do the opposite okay so opposite of what is it opposite of saying

It will go down or opposite of that it will go up because there are still some people that think that it’s going to recover the third thing that’s making me unsure is the timing of consumer and business defaults we know a lot of people are hurting for money but the government is you know doling out money here they have forbearance mortgages which might prop up

The mortgage market they have ppp pay check protection program loans to small businesses so all of these policies sort of props up the market a little bit and kind of distorts how fast the market would go down if we don’t have any kind of the stimulus check we don’t have any of these you know free money all everywhere right people and businesses are going to go

Bankrupt a lot faster so because these things are here the stock market is just kind of chugging along it’s like oh nothing is happening but then if the next policy does not get passed in time then people can go bankrupt and this is when things start to fall apart so it’s actually policy that might actually keep it going longer and longer now if you ask me i feel

Like the stock market is just a bit delusional right now i just haven’t come to full terms of the reality of this as before here is a chart of a stock market bubble graph i have used this graph before especially with bitcoin now this is not to say that the stock market is anything like bitcoin right now why did it crash initially it’s because of this infection

Stuff so when there is a bubble there needs to be a reason for it to pop otherwise it’s just going to keep on going up until it’s like too big and maybe it pops itself but we have this black swan event that artificially popped the bubble here is what the typical stock market bubble looks like and this seems to repeat itself all the time in bitcoin in tesla and

It might just be that tesla is at the same spot as the wider stock market right now look over here at first you are optimistic and then as the asset prices go up everyone is a genius investor then you become enthusiastic and then you have irrational exuberance where everyone feels like oh you can just make money just put it all into fang stock put it all into

Qqq s p 500 you see it all over the place on youtube everyone’s going by the four percent rule of stock market gains you know they think they can retire just going 100 percent into the stock market i never believed that too much and then right when you’re at the top it’s yolo you only live once you’re like yeah you know everyone’s like it’s just gonna keep on

Going up and then the infection happened drops and now we are at this bull trap phase right it dropped 30 and came back up 15 20 and now we are at this confusion state and i see it all over the place i see it in the comments down below where it’s roughly half half maybe a little bit more negative than positive but you know it’s not completely one-sided over here

So this is a very confusing time for the stock market because you have opinions on both sides so right now it’s like at the peak of the bull trap it’s like a state of calm before the next dramatic drop and when that happens i actually don’t know if it’s gonna happen i just anticipate it i like to predict the stock market here and i put my money where my mouth

Is because i sold all my stock first if it drops a little bit maybe five ten percent we’re going to get fear and then if it drops all the way down to where it was before minus 30 we’re gonna get panic and then if it drops more than that 40 50 percent we’re gonna get what you call capitulation i don’t know how to say that too well but here it is capitulation is

Surrendering or ceasing to resist an opponent or demand the market went down it went down some more and then it went down so much for so long that you eventually give up we haven’t went through a cycle like this yet even with all this craziness going on in the stock market and then finally it just rests down there at the all hope is lost phase and then you finally

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Go okay maybe i lost all a lot of money here and then you just go maybe i should sell you know it’s just in case it just drops anymore so this is the typical investor thing people are too bullish thinking that oh yeah this is going to work out long term until it doesn’t here’s my view on the stock market and this work for me quite repeatedly whenever i try to spot

Stock market bubbles stock market is not efficient it’s very very not efficient you just kind of think about it right when a piece of news goes out not everyone gets it not everyone is like glued to the screen looking at every single headline there is i am when i looked at the headlines coming from china then i’m like okay maybe i was one of the earlier ones to

Kind of absorb it and then go oh yeah something is really bad brewing going on and it definitely looks like it’s going to spread by the way it looks like over in wuhan it takes time for news to percolate throughout if you are just kind of laying on the beach right you think you’re retired you’re not looking at the news a lot eventually you might catch a whiff of

The news and finally maybe like two or three weeks after the stock market drops then you start to mow on it and then you go oh my gosh my portfolio you know it dropped 25 30 maybe i should sell some of it or something so not everyone is gonna react right when the news hits and even let’s say everybody gets the same piece of news every single morning everybody

Reads all the news okay every single headline out in the world they absorb it all not everyone is going to process it the same way some people will process it and react to it immediately they’re more like the trigger happy type of person where you know some some movement going on they see it they’re gonna process it and then they’re gonna sell their stock some

Other people might be like oh i’m like a long-term holder if there’s like little all this market noise right that’s what like they like to call it for really long-term investors it’s just noise going on i’m not going to react to that then they might not sell right away but the important thing i think for trying to time the market i am frankly trying to time the

Market here and not everyone’s going to be successful sometimes there’s fake headlines where they try to make things seem bigger than they are so you have to read all the news and stuff process it yourself think for yourself and then if you see that there is a impending backdrop some impending doom then that is when you should sell that is when i sold like a

Week ago so here is my market prediction the stock market went down very very quickly in a few weeks it went back up in a few weeks all of this happened within a two-month period and then you look at the stock market bubble timing assuming the first part takes one month of the initial drop it takes another month to come back up it’s gonna take another month or

Two for it to really really drop all the way down to all hope is lost levels so my timing here i think it’s been one week or so we might need another week or two before it actually starts going down of course if it doesn’t go down then you guys can laugh at me it’s okay i know full well of making these videos that i could definitely be wrong this is a predictive

Statement here i could very well lose five percent gain five ten percent gain at most i believe but the downsides are huge so this is why i sold thanks for watching everybody i hope you guys enjoyed the views i have on this stock market and as always don’t forget to check out my weeble referral link down in the video description below go get your two free shares

Of stock give me a like on this video comment down below let me know how many weeks you think it’ll take before it drops minus 30 the lowest low of march and as always don’t forget to push that subscribe button and ring that bell icon thanks for watching you

Transcribed from video
When to Buy Back In By BeatTheBush

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