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Whoo guys as we all know by now oil prices are crazy right now okay it was just what a day or two ago oil prices were trading below zero dollars like who ever thought they’d see a oil price in terms of oil price contracts under a dollar it was zero dollars and then it was negative absolute craziness we know the oil market is in massive contango right now which
Essentially means the backward-looking prices are way below what the forward prices are and this is like something almost we’ve never really seen this type of moves in the oil market absolutely bananas i mean if you think even back to the great recession i believe in the great recession at its lows oil fell to like thirtyish dollars somewhere around there in terms
Of contracts and here we are you know like literally yeah you like that a day or two ago trading negative like that’s just absolute craziness okay and this is why the whole contango situation is why i can’t play us oh i’ve thought about it but the whole contango that’s just creating a really really messy situation for us oh and so therefore i can’t get in that one
But i will say that could potentially be a play down the road but just at the moment because of how much contango there is out there it’s not really the play as of right now so this got me to thinking how can i make money from this mess there has to be an opportunity and any market you’re in when you see some type of crazy activity there’s usually money to be made
Sometimes it means to go long shares if that’s the situation sometimes it could mean short selling actually believe it or not or or buying put options or call options or there’s gotta be something whenever you see some type of craziness in the market there’s always usually a way you can make money on it and capitalize on it so that’s what i put a lot of my time and
Attention and it got me to thinking imagine if you got paid $100 for every time you ever smash the thumbs up button on youtube who would really be the richest person would jeff bezos really be the richest person in the world anymore i don’t think so okay it might be okay no seriously this guy may think there’s got to be a play okay there must be an opportunity so
Over the course this weekend i spent a lot of time really thinking about this thinking about all the different possibilities how i could potentially make money from this it we know oil prices are extremely low and maybe even unsustainably low i mean they probably can’t stay around this range forever although it is possible but i mean look at look at this guy’s it’s
It’s extraordinary the june contracts are trading under 14 months july i mean you know compete oil usually is in july in august july is 20 bucks august is trading under 24 even then when you start going out to the full time it’s not the high mean the highest we can really see effort for 2020 at least our december contracts trading at 29 bucks that is extraordinarily
Low prices and and so over time you got to assume these prices will come up but it could take a while okay with oil prices being so low like that i don’t want to play any of the bad balance sheet players okay the smaller companies that honestly a lot of these companies gonna go out of business do noble corporations the rig the transocean okay a devon energy a lot
Of these companies they could end up very well going under they have massive debt loads obviously with oil prices being where they’re at the none of these companies can even think about making a profit these are gonna take massive massive losses and when you’re kind of cash-strapped like a lot of these companies are with massive debt loads massive interest to
Pay you know lives a big questions out if they if very many of these companies are gonna make it through this mess and so i don’t want to be a part of any of those companies i thought about this weekend i’m like nah i just know okay never thought about the big players of chevron’s a phillips sixty-six exxon mobil bp all those big players okay i don’t want i don’t
Wanna be part of those corporations either okay i just don’t there’s just not enough growth there although those companies should make it through this fine because to keep in mind they also run refineries and they have a lot of different products that just aren’t dependent upon oil prices i don’t want to be in those stocks either okay meanwhile over the past couple
Days a lot of people have been making jokes because oil went negative right so you got paid to basically take oil you know what those contracts couple days ago i think if the peak it was like 37 bucks absolute craziness you got paid to take oil so people are like oh my gosh i’m gonna start storing oil barrels in my backyard and their memes going around it was like
A big joke over the past few days right everybody talking about they’re gonna fill their houses with oil just so they can collect all the they would get paid to take oil and so then i think it was yesterday you know somebody sent me a dm and i said some type of joke you know about carnival cruise iron and i was like oh carnival cruise line they should start using
It for oil storage okay that’s how they could start making money because obviously if you don’t know carnival cruise is the worst investment i have ever been in my life we’ll see how it turns out over the next few years but obviously they got hit by the once in a hundred year roni situation and so i made a joke since all their ships are down right now you know
Like like just just destroy the insides of the ships and just fill them up with oil you know you get paid hey is something to do in the meantime and so i made that joke and then it got me thinking oil tanker stocks okay oil tanker stocks i haven’t been interested in oil tanker stocks gosh and probably since i 2009 or something like that like it’s been a long long
Time and so i started looking at nordic american tankers okay nordic american tankers and i bought a lot of stock here today okay so let me give you some facts about this one and let me tell you exactly in detail in this video well i believe i’m gonna make a lot of money from from this stock specifically but a lot of the tanker stocks are probably gonna make a lot
Of money this is just my one because i know this one pretty decently well okay so ticker symbol this one is na t it’s a stock trading in the five today it’s been all over the place but it’s in the fives okay a market capitalization you know over seven hundred million dollars so less than a 1 billion dollar market cap lenora nordic american tanker so it’s not a big
Company at all even from me you know i buy some of these smaller companies that sometimes are around a billion two billion but i rarely go under billion dollar market cap this is one of those very few opportunities and i know some of you guys love to see kind of where stocks been as far as the stock price has been the the peak for this company was really around
2004 2005 2005 the stock was trading over $50 a share in over 50 dollars a share that was when the business was as good as it can get in recent times the best of share price has done it is basically about 15 dollars a share but this isn’t a stock that’s really known for being necessarily a great stock to get capital appreciation and this is a stock that’s known
To be a dividend beast okay a dividend beast and they just upped their dividend massively recently because their business is going really good and i’m going to show you how good in a moment okay they up their dividend to 14 cents a share basically any shareholders on record as of may 26 will receive that dividend on june 5th and keep in mind this is a company
That has been paying out dividends consistently since 1997 okay next e97 i was in elementary school in 1997 that’s absolutely amazing they just upped this dividend massively and that’s what nordic american tanker is known for they’re known to pay out massive amounts of their cash flow in the form of dividends okay that’s what this company is known for okay nordic
American tankers in terms of their fleet they have a lot of they have obviously a lot of these tankers okay 23 vessels in total okay 23 like mj okay amazing now if you think about these vessels what are they use for obviously they’re used to store oil okay and so imagine you’re a trader or fund out there in you own a lot of oil and you need somewhere to put the oil
Okay you’re gonna sometimes use land-based storage options and sometimes if you’re forced to or if it makes more sense you’re gonna end up using one of these vessels okay and they’re not the only company in this market there’s plenty of other companies in this market as well and it’s a great business model and it’s usually a very good cash flow business model okay
No the biggest cost for these guys when you think about that the biggest cost for these guys is always gonna actually be feel fuel for the for the cuz they don’t have massive crews there’s no massive crews for this and it’s not like it’s a cruise ship in the sense that you get they got a bunch of cost around food cost and drink aucilla sorts of things no these
Ships run a relatively small crew and the biggest cost generally speaking is fuel and yes we’re fuel prices are right now guys they’re you know ridiculously low like ridiculously low we just looked at obviously oil costs so fuel cost is going to be extremely low for these ships right now and that is tremendous news okay that’s tremendous news that fuel costs are
So low because that just means these vessels are gonna be able to operate a lot more profitably than obviously in a situation where fuel cost is very high up cade but the real question for me is not just around the fact that fuel pressure low that’s that’s almost a very small detail what all folks around us how much money or these guys actually making right now
Okay how much money they make in and i’m telling you guys these oil tanker companies like nordic american tanker or making money hand over fist right now it’s disgusting okay so here’s a situation here essentially in a normal april if you want to you know be in one of these tankers okay it’s gonna cost you roughly around twenty five thousand dollars per day okay
Twenty five thousand dollars per day to store your oil there okay great now these guys are getting between a hundred thousand dollars per day and two hundred thousand dollars per day okay this is ridiculous okay absolutely ridiculous i mean these numbers are rather shocking i mean just like holy smokes guys like think about that normally april they’re getting 25k
Per day they’re getting a hundred k to two hundred k plus per day right now no i was listening to a gentleman he’s a he’s a shipping expert on cnbc and before i went to bed last night i think was like 3 a.m. and he mention a number around a quarter a million dollars per day okay now i have not seen any concrete proof of that so i didn’t put that number in here but
Then again he’s a shipping expert i’m not you know i don’t think he would make that up but yes so some of these vessels are going for you know up to potentially a quarter of a million dollars per day okay this this is a massive change to these companies business model and somebody like an na t this is more than a difference maker okay this is this is like just i
Can’t even explain it i can’t even like how do you even explain that you go from 25k a day to a hundred k maybe 200 k like we’re talking you know a 5 x in the business model 10 x in a business model and basically here over years like that’s absolutely extraordinary the profitability for these companies is going to absolutely go through the roof the profitability
For na t is going to go to levels probably haven’t seen since 2004 two thousand five if not even even better than that okay it’s an extraordinary time for these different players in this market although this isn’t sustainable for a long time i’ll be a hundred percent you know upfront about that i don’t think they’re gonna get 100k 200k per day long-term there’s no
Way that’s happening but if they can keep bringing in this money for the next several months especially if they can bring it in for several quarters oh my goodness okay why is this well oil storage it’s just running out so so basically if you want to store oil you need a store oil somewhere you have to sometimes go to some of these tankers and just like everything
Else this is a big supply and demand game and when there’s a ton of demand for storing oil products guess what the price is you’re gonna be able to charge are gonna go through the absolute roof like like we haven’t really ever seen okay because there’s just nowhere to store this stuff okay and here’s the other thing a lot of a lot of these you know traders or funds
Or different individuals out there that own the oil right that actually you know have owned these contracts they have to take delivery a lot of them that are that are renting out these vessels to keep all the storage of the product a lot of them aren’t even having the product moved right now which means fuel costs is like non-existent for these companies right now
Because they really don’t want to move it anywhere they really can’t move it anywhere they’re like for right now just just keep it there man just keep it where it’s at you know i just need to store it somewhere and so that that even it helps out profitability in a bigger way for a company like this and so if you’re thinking about this from the perspective of being
An individual or a fund or whatever that that holds a bunch of this physical oil yeah you kind of don’t really want to get rid of it right now if you don’t have to get rid of it right now and the reason being is that the prices you could get rid of it at or really really miniscule a lot like really if you’re selling this oil right now you’re getting such low amounts
Of money you really would ideally like to hold this for at least a few months if not a couple quarters into the future where hopefully oil prices are at a much more elevated level and you can get rid of this stuff for you know better prices and now because getting rid of it right now and you know whatever price we’re trading that right now it’s probably not the most
Attractive thing if you’re somebody that actually hold the physical product okay so let’s start going through some of these n80 numbers in my opinion in terms of net income what i think this company is going to do in 2020 and then what i think the stock price or what type of return on investment i’m gonna get in this investment okay and you know i use investment
Term a little loosely in this one because this is not necessarily nearly as much of an investment of mine like a facebook stock would be or a tesla stock or an uber stock or a lot of the plays i’m usually known for where you know i’m planning on holding these positions for years two years to come in the future you know ask i work solutions this isn’t one of those
Type of plays it’s a little short-term in nature and we’ll see how long i kind of hold this i could hold it for maybe a few weeks i can hold this for maybe a year we’ll see what kind of what happens i want to see how the kind of things transpired here okay but here are my number so three different scenarios we’re gonna go through kind of like a you know a bad
Scenario my realistic scenario in my personal opinion in the best-case scenario okay here’s a bad scenario a bad scenario for nordic american tankers ticker symbol na t would be that they only do one hundred million dollars in net income that would be a bad scenario in my opinion for the stock in 2020 okay keep in mind the last year the last time they had a really
Really strong year was 2015 and they and that year they did one hundred and twenty eight million dollars in net income and if i’m looking at the rates and what’s transpiring right now iii don’t see any way possible why they don’t destroy that number and make 128 million look like it wasn’t that good of a year because what we’re looking at in the oil markets right now
Is way more pronounced in terms of storing this stuff it’s a way crazier situation then essentially we had in there you know fiscal year 2015 so 128 million they made that year by the way these numbers are all thousands just so you guys know i know some people you know or kind of newer to stock market investing so that’s really 128 million that’s not 128 thousand
For those you who might not know that but needless to say i think they’re gonna make way more than 128 million dollars in it income but a bad scenario would be the only make 100ml okay my scenario number two i believe this company this is mata these are my numbers based upon what i worked out as projections based upon the fact that they’re getting huge numbers in
Now unlikely things will probably slow down throughout the year i believe the company is going to do 200 million to two hundred and fifty million dollars of net income in 2020 okay two hundred and two hundred and fifty million dollars in net income in 2020 that’s my scenario this is not some ultra bullish scenario where they continue to get a hundred to two hundred
K per day or something like that for the whole entire year no it’s assuming they get some some huge numbers for the next few months and then you know a rates start to drop and drop as we kind of move into the fall and kind of go from there in that scenario based upon what i worked out 200 to 250 million dollars in net income and keep in mind guys this is a company
That’s what was it a seven hundred and something million dollar market capitalization i mean if they can pull in two hundred or two hundred fifteen million dollars in net income whew so i got to say about this okay best-case scenario my personal opinion for this stock in terms of this net income in 2020 would be they make 300 to 400 million dollars of net income
Very much a possibility but you need a strong 2020 period all the way to the end okay in order for this company to do 300 or 400 million dollars net income you would need that the rates to be high for a long time and so even in get with a 300 400 million dollar number the number could come down over time in terms of what they’re getting per day for these vessels
But it comes down very very slowly as 2020 goes along okay i don’t think that’s the most realistic situation but it is a possibility that’s the best-case scenario 300 or 400 million that would be amazing because once again the market capitalisation of those companies 700 and you know 50 million dollars let’s say 750 million market cap they’re going to do anywhere
From a hundred million dollars worst case scenario to up to four hundred million dollars best best case scenario neither’s say this is a pretty interesting value proposition okay so in terms of what i’m thinking i’ll make some money on this so i think between share price appreciation and what i’ll receive out for dividends i think i have a legit possibility of two
X or more my money in 2020 okay i’m not even talking about future years just kind when i look at this even even if even if you know the rates go down and the amount of cash flow this company will pay out in the form of dividends should be like like you know almost like a level i haven’t really seen before and so i think i have a legit possibility to 2x or more
My money this year in 2020 that’s why i stuffed over 30k in the stock here today 30k you know it’s definitely not a big investment for me but it’s one of those that i’m like i’m willing to take this risk because the risk is you know let’s say the whole market deteriorate let’s say nobody wants to store oil anymore or something like that which doesn’t really make
Sense but let’s say that plays out and the stock goes down and it goes down at 2 dollars and 50 cents and oh my gosh i lose 15k that would suck but upside here is i should make $30,000 plus this year so you know i’m always in the game of risk reward and you know i’m always gonna if the rewards in my favor i gotta try to take advantage and the more and more the
Rewards in my my advantage in a situation like this and more and more i’m gonna go over there so you know that’s the situation here i think will do very well with this one and if we don’t we don’t and i can tell you if i didn’t do good with this one then i’ll probably never own another ship stock in my life between ccl and whatever happens here but i think there’s
A pretty high probability we’ll make a lot of money in this one but time will tell alright thank you for watching and have a great day bye-bye smash tums up if you enjoyed me showing this worth do
Transcribed from video
Why I Just Put $30,000 into this Oil Tanker Stock! Big ROI OPP By Financial Education