WHY THE MARKET CRASH JUST GOT WORSE

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Hello howdy to the flippin flapjacking crew welcome into this video here which is a big one there’s so much going on in the market this crash this correction whatever you want to call it what’s going on in the stock market right now there’s so much coming out that people are seeing so much that people aren’t seeing and there’s so much new news all the time coming

Out and things like that and in this video basically what i want to do is i want to break down kind of what i see going on out there and there’s a lot that i see going on out there and i want to break this down as simple as possible so you guys can kind of understand what’s happening in the market and um you know what to kind of stay away from in this sort of market

We’re in right now and what to kind of go after okay so first off where i actually want to start today’s video is looking at monthly market returns all right and basically what this shows you is a for january it’s usually a coin flip on if we’re up or down there’s been since uh 2000 all the way through last year there’s been 11 up years there’s been 11 down years

The average return for the month of january is negative 0.36 percent okay some of the years have been great 2019 specifically but keep in mind we came off a horrible horrible market in december of 2018 market was tanking and then we got saved basically right around december 26th market started to go up again and had a great january like a nine percent move in in

January was off the charts right and we’ve also had some you know pretty darn bad januaries 2009 down eight and a half percent this is definitely gonna be up there with the worst januaries ever if not the worst january ever for the stock market we’re going to be right there basically if you haven’t seen the nasdaq nasdaq is now down 13.44 year to date it has just

Been a disaster zone nonetheless and so this is one of those years you’re looking at and you’re saying hmm okay now next question i want to answer is what happens in february what happens in march what happens in april like are there some good months likely coming well let’s go ahead and take a look okay so february also usually pretty much a coin flip month on

Average 12 up years 10 down years average return of negative 0.57 percent since 2000 alright so not that encouraging for february however when we go to march we see a flip happening 13 up years nine down years average return 0.85 pretty darn good april oh my gosh you want to talk about the best month for stocks it’s april okay if we go at least since the year 2000

Which is what matters because i really want to look at you know i don’t care about what was going on the stock market 60 70 80 years ago their financial system was completely different at that time everything was completely different at that time right i care about more modern history last 20 25 years so april 17 up years only five down years that’s extraordinary

Average return of 2.42 look at some of these moves in some of these years right 20 20 16.59 percent oh my gosh okay that’s just epic and uh when it comes to the down moves they tend to be pretty strong if you do have a down april but 17 years of up years guys that’s you know nothing short of extraordinary like usually you’re going to expect a very very good april

In the stock market i think this is just one of many factors where there’s a lot of folks that i’ve heard a lot of these people in the stock market say hey man i’m going to go big in the market or come back in the market if they had sold out of stocks or whatever march april and i think that’s one of the big factors because people look at recent history last 20

Plus years and most of the time you’re up okay very very rare i mean we haven’t had it look at that we haven’t had a down april since 2012. and before that you had to go to 2005 for a down april guys that’s nothing short of extraordinary so by the way if you’re looking to join the best program out there in terms of like a course in the discord chat the smartest

Group of investors i’ve ever been around check out the pinned comment down there to apply to join us in there learn how to invest in any market all right if we go ahead and look at may may most of the time the market is good 15 up years only seven down years now do keep in mind the average return is only 0.24 percent that’s because we have had some bad maze in

Recent years so 2010 down 8.34 2012 down six 0.62 percent in 2019 down point uh six eight percent essentially or a six point eight percent so big downward moves there for the market and um you know so this is just something to keep in mind that when you look at april when you look at may most of the years were up i think that’s one of the one of many factors

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Why folks are looking at you know i hear all this talk about a march april not buying anything until march april i think this is one of the big factors now if you want to know the worst month generally speaking for stocks it’s september the average return for september since 2000 is down 1.28 percent yeah september’s just usually you know it’s a coin flip if it’s

Going to go up but usually it goes down uh yeah you know usually the percentage is pretty darn negative let’s just put it that way okay so that’s something worth addressing here at the top but look at the market here today right nasdaq was flirting with 14 000 14 000 and then just fell off a cliff and it was interesting because once um you know the fed statement

Came out it was seen as a positive initially i don’t know if you guys heard you probably have okay i think everybody’s been tracking that uh the fed jay powell came out and talked and answered a ton of questions for i don’t know he was probably on there for an hour or so and answered a ton of questions in general and when the fed statement came out the market didn’t

The market was solid and once he started talking the market just started moving down and moving down it wasn’t really anything earth-shaking like oh my gosh i can’t believe j-pal said that oh there wasn’t anything earth-shaking it’s just we’re in that sort of market where volatility reigns supreme and when you see stock prices i mean we we fell off a cliff once

Essentially powell started talking man we literally fell off a cliff on everything something i like about hungry bull is we have the charts you know you can see the the one day charts like right in between the stock price on your watch list and uh look at purple i mean it fell off a cliff look at goodrx fell off a cliff that’s not even like some dangerous business

Model that’s like oh my gosh you know this is so scary stock it’s not it’s good rx like if you know about the company like it’s it’s pretty darn impressive stitch fix fell off a cliff the hood oh my gosh look at the hood today literally just fell off a cliff ended up finishing down five percent and uh it was actually a respectable day for the hood up until that baba

Obviously fell off a cliff but baba pretty much falls off cliff every day kind of like the hood does okay if we look at sdc fell off a cliff fubo fell off a cliff celsius fell off a cliff lemonade fell off a cliff square fell off cliff every single growth related stock you can find out there literally once powell started talking whoa man did they fall off i mean

Every single one so a lot of these stocks had nice gains for the day they really did they were green people are feeling good counts were up left and right people were excited you know myself i think at the peak today i was probably up at least a quarter mil if not 300 000 plus and then i think i barely eat out again today you know what i mean like just literally

Everything pretty much fell off a cliff there’s some stocks that finish green but compared to how green things were prior to powell coming out and talking oh man okay so basically the market what happened here today if you want to know the market was expecting um some some good news from pal and everybody bought right in the morning and it sent the market up and

Stocks were looking great and then everything came crashing down essentially okay that’s what happened here today look at lemonade stock here today i mean just off a cliff uh voyager off a cliff teledoc off a cliff a teledoc you know it’s still about five bucks above 52 week low but yeah don’t be surprised if that baby hits back down there look at funko fell off

A cliff corsair off a cliff oatley off a cliff and nordstrom all off cliffs here today extraordinary moves down once powell started talking maxar technology same thing palantir same thing volunteer look at that 1275 pallentier now ah man i gotta get him valentino that’s all i gotta say facebook off a cliff beyond meat off a cliff a dropbox off a cliff there the

Chef the chef was having a great day uh it really was it was up i think eight percent at the highs and that was one of the reasons that i was up you know many many hundreds of thousands at one point today and then powell came out started talking and off a cliff every single thing and so what what you see happening on a day like today is people bought very very

Heavily in the the or early morning trading people were buying call options people were buying stocks people were loading the boat hoping for some good news from power like he was going to change course or something like that and it just didn’t happen they stayed the course they said everything that was expected to say and everything just tanked to the floor and

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That’s why it is so dangerous to gamble it’s so dangerous to gamble on something happening short term like oh yeah you know maybe powell’s going to lay off a little bit and not be consistent with what he says and so you know maybe stocks will will pump all day and into tomorrow and into the next week and it’s like you know it’s just that’s such a gambling decision

That is such a gambling decision at the end of the day it’s not an investment decision investment decision says i love this stock i’m going to buy this stock for the next five years uh you know i love where this company’s going and their revenues and where their net income’s going and the trends that this company has and all those sorts of things that’s investing

When you start doing things like i’m going to buy call options that expire next month because the market might pump or this stock might pump oh let me load up on some that’s straight up gambling there’s no debating that okay that’s straight up gambling it’s not even it’s not even an estimated guess it’s gambling okay and uh it’s just so frustrating because i

See the activity you know brian sent me some some interesting stuff that he looks at he looks at much more technical related things and you can see the trades going through for some of these options in this early morning today that was just boom boom boom everybody loading up and a lot of these option contracts are now already down 20 30 40 percent because they’re

Thinly trading and people are loading up on them and so literally in a matter of less than 24 hours a lot of these option contracts are now down 10 20 30 plus percent in a matter of hours and it’s like you say well it could have gone up oh man you know sure it could have gone up and they could have been up 30 or 40 right that didn’t happen and uh that’s why you

You you don’t gamble okay it’s straight up gambling what a lot of these individuals are doing in this market right now uh i’ve been you know i’ve known some some very people very very close to me that are what i would call compulsive gamblers okay and they do what’s called loss chasing lost chasing describes a tendency of a gambler to amplify their betting in

An effort to recoup prior losses it is widely regarded as basically a defining feature of disordered gambling a hallmark to a transition from recreational to disorder gambling and i see people basically doing this and these folks have treated the stock market this entire time for the last two years as basically a gambling pool to just gamble on stocks and not

Making really bets on companies over the next three five ten years seven years whatever right they’re making bets on stocks for the next week the next month then you know maybe the next three months um oh they’re stocked by pump you hear it in their their voice oh i think stocks are going to pump powell’s going to do this that and it’s like you know this is and

They don’t even really the problem with this is and like i said i’ve known some people very very close to me that i’ve seen go through this cycle essentially the problem is when they’re in it they don’t realize it they they don’t realize it they’re they’re they try to chase gains after gains i went through this cycle a little bit in 2015 and i was in stocks i

Was out of stocks i was in stocks i was out of stocks next thing you know i was playing earnings trades and i was i put myself into a hot mess and i would lose money and then i would try to recoup my losses and i’m like oh i’m going to go even bigger in this earnings trade this one’s going to go right sometimes they’d go great most of the time they didn’t go right

And i ended up losing more and more and more and it got to the point where i had to like fully rethink everything i’m like what path did i just go down and you don’t you don’t even know about it when you’re in it you don’t know about it when you’re in it essentially you have to take us a full step back and just be like okay where i’m at and then you start slowly

Kind of getting yourself back together and it doesn’t happen overnight either it takes a while to get yourself back back into the right frame of mind and um you know it’s it’s it’s actually it’s it doesn’t even necessarily make me mad to see it it makes me sad to see it because i see these individuals going through this and it’s like it’s it’s honestly sad to see

Okay why do gamblers continue to gamble after they lost it’s not any it’s not any easier for gambling addicts to just stop than it is for an alcoholic or a drug addict to stop using their substance of choice gamblers don’t only get a rush of adrenaline when they are winning but also when they are losing the uncertainty of gambling is what motivates players to keep

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Gambling a compulsive gambler will believe that they are just one bet away from winning the jackpot and many believe that gambling is about skill to an extent in most cases when an addicted gambler loses they don’t stop there they think they are so close to winning that if they just try once more surely they’ll win this time this is very dangerous mindset to have

They often feel a sense of panic at the moment they have loss and are determined to gain it back this is referred to as chasing losses okay and the thing is when it comes to this this isn’t just uh you know something that happens to people in a casino or sports bettors or people that bet on horses or anything like that right and most people that do that sort of

Activity or do it responsibly but you have a certain segment okay and these are usually very very um you know i would call them very very confident individuals and a lot of times they love the competition right i love the competition of the stock market but they go down this this path where they might have lost a ton of money and they start to panic in what do

They do they also sell stocks and then also they make this move and also they’re jumping in uh oh i’m doing this now i’m doing this uh and they’re looking everywhere trying to get the money back they lost okay and they think they can somehow win this game or something like that um from a short short-term perspective and they’re they’re trying to chase the riches

Rather than just taking a step back and being like what the hell am i doing what am i doing here i’m not even investing anymore i’m just i’m in this other stocks i’m in and out of stocks i’m buying these calls i’m also doing this i’m doing that and there gets so far all over the place um it’s it’s really really sad to see and it happens in the stock market and uh

People don’t realize it you you know there’s a big there’s a huge difference between investing in companies and gambling in companies or gambling in stocks right when you’re gambling in stocks you’re in you’re out you’re playing it from the perspective of them trying to make money tomorrow i’m trying to get rich tomorrow trying to get richer tomorrow and um that’s

Just not the that’s not the name of the game guys and it’s unfortunate to see this happen um i think it’s been going on for you know a good amount of while but i think it’s just reached the levels that it’s getting much much worse and the worst part is you you get a win right if you’re in this sort of cycle often you get a win so you get that confirmation that

Like oh this this is working right all of a sudden you’re playing all these options and you get an option to hit and you’re like oh man oh boy i just made 200 of this option i just made 80 of this option here we go baby here we go okay and um it’s just it’s it’s unfortunate for me to see because i see a lot of people going down that path and it’s nothing short

Of unfortunate that’s all i can say about that and uh the only way the only way you can break out of a cycle like that is to basically unfortunately you have to kind of cash out of everything go to the sideline for a significant amount of time take some time off and really be real with yourself but as somebody that has known a lot of compulsive gamblers that have

Been very very close to me you can’t talk reason with them you cannot talk reason with them they are hell bent on their mission if you ever try to get uh you know somebody that’s really gambling a lot out of a casino or something like that good luck good luck okay that’s all i got to say is say say to you good luck they are so convinced oh i just need you know to

Put another 20 in and this this baby’s going to hit and um they think they’re right you can’t talk reason with them you can’t talk reason with them and um you know it’s it’s it sucks that’s all i say about that it sucks so anyways guys keep your heads out there ask yourself are you gambling or are you investing that’s the biggest question at the end of the day

And stay away from that because in this sort of market it uh it leads to a lot of gamblers that lose a lot of money and those folks get habits that are really really hard to break like i said you have to take a step back uh for for you know sometimes at least a few weeks if not several months take a step back and get back on the right track okay anyways guys much

Love as always i appreciate you guys joining me for a video like this and have a great day

Transcribed from video
WHY THE MARKET CRASH JUST GOT WORSE By Financial Education

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