Why We Are in a Bubble

Get 2 free share of stock for signing up here:

How’s it going everybody this is beat the bush are we in a bubble as you guys know from my previous videos that i am pretty much a perma bear today i’m gonna go over what has transpired go over some evidence to support my theory that we are in a bubble and also make a few modifications to my predictions going forward before i begin this video is sponsored by weeble

Weaboo is a free trading app get it it costs you nothing deposit $100 and you’ll get two free shares of stock if you sign up for this i’ll greatly appreciate it and you’ll help me make more videos like these check out my referral link down in the video description below let’s go over what happened so far the sp500 has increased 35% since march 24th overall from the

Peak it’s down still about 10% for the infection stuff we still have a hundred fifteen thousand deaths so far in the united states we have so far this year 103 large-scale bankruptcy filing so far retail sales are down about 16% there’s an oral crash and gdp is forecasted to be reduced by 5% unemployment rate is at 13.3% and if you take out the misc classification

Is more like sixteen point three percent now i have to admit and i could not have predicted this that the market completely is ignoring all the real data going out there frankly most people are probably a little fatigued looking at the update of the number of people getting new infections or the number of debts you look at it for like two months already and now it

Just becomes kind of mundane it’s the same thing every single day oh the number went up a little bit more it didn’t go up a lot more so as long as it’s kind of roughly the same people almost seem to not care anymore now i think the stock market thinks the same as well it’s tending to not care about this infection stuff it’s looking at other kinds of news instead

But i think it’s gonna start caring about the infection stuff if the rate of infection increases by a lot now there’s going to be small fluctuations but we’re gonna have to see maybe like at least 30 percent increase before the stock market starts caring about it again let me talk a little bit about my tbi trade here i bought in around $150 or so it rocketed up

All the way to 220 my intention was not actually to sell it just because it went up a little bit it went about a good 30% at its maximum but my intention here and i want to fully realize it because if i don’t i’m gonna regret it because if later on it does exactly the thing that i’m saying then i would really regret selling it early just because i made a little bit

Of profit my anticipation is still that volatility may go up for the next week or so and if the stock market really freaks out if there’s a second infection or something which i don’t think there really is gonna be it’s gonna be kind of mild but if something really drastic happens and i could not have predicted this i think the volatility would spike all the way

See also  Are you Diversified? | Diversified Portfolio Examples! | Stock Market!

Up to 304 100% again so in the comments i noticed a lot of people saying hey you know it went up i’m so thankful that you know i listened to you when you talked about it on a video and they copied me i’m very very concerned for these people that tries to do the same thing that i’m doing and mainly because these stocks are extremely volatile they’re kind of like

Playing with gasoline they’re just on fire and you don’t really want to hold it for all that long i know being a finance youtuber you kind of have to set an example so i have to put like a disclaimer on this that this play that i’m doing for tv ix is an extremely extremely risky thing that’s why i put so little in it now i want to talk a little bit about what i

Thought of the stock market back at mid-february or so when i sold out of the stock market i freaked exactly when i sold it but it was right before the dip and at that point i really did think about putting money into tv acts except i did not you know so this is kind of like oh i should have i could have i also thought about buying a whole bunch of other things

Right i thought about buying cruise lines i thought about buying airlines and stuff and look you know the last week or two it rocketed up and you know too bad right you can’t take yourself over not deciding to buy something just because you thought about it right in hindsight it always you know like a good idea moving on i want to take this time to update what i

Think the market is gonna do going forward because my views on what’s gonna happen changed it a little bit in the recent week now here’s my new thinking i think most people are wearing masks some people are not wearing masks but a large portion of the population is trying to follow the social distancing thing all the states are trying to reopen the economy although

Slowly so people are doing it very very carefully and they’re closely monitoring the infection rates so i am sure that once they’re monitoring it and they see there’s something going wrong because they relax a little bit too much they’re going to like tense up again and then go okay you know we’re doing something wrong we have to you know walk back the release in

Restrictions a little bit and so it’s going to be fluctuating like this for quite some time i feel like the current infection rate the rate is gonna stay roughly the same we may see it increase a little bit and then we’re gonna change the policies a little bit make it more restrictive and then it’s gonna go down but then through from this point on all the way to

See also  7 Financial Goals every 24 year old needs to have!

December and march of 2021 i feel like the policies are going to relax and tighten and they’re gonna try to modulate it so that we don’t get too many infections but we’re also not going to do it so restrictive that we’re going to get a significant reduction of zero infections at all many businesses are indeed trying to cope with all these restrictions and some of

Them they’re saying with these restrictions they cannot remain profitable if they can only have people sitting social distancing reducing the number of capacity and they can only sit outside and stuff a lot of restaurants are not going to be profitable when they’re not near at least over 50% capacity because i think the current restriction is probably what we can

Sort of live with for a long period of time i think we may reach some sort of equilibrium where there’s an acceptable amount of infection an acceptable amount of deaths which is not greatly more than what it is currently which is not greatly more then a really really bad flu season but i think at this equilibrium of restrictions i think a lot of restaurants is not

Going to be able to survive and here’s a sticking point because if they cannot survive this means there’s gonna be a trickling effect on the economy the restaurant business is it’s not gonna do well they need enough people to fill these airplanes in order to become profitable there’s no way around it i see more and more bankruptcies coming in the future people are

Just kind of crossing their fingers thinking that if they can hold on for so long so far that they hope the rules are gonna be relaxed so then they can open up their business again now the equilibrium point is something that i am kind of unsure of at what kind of rules can we actually live with for the rest of the year because this is gonna be around and we’re gonna

Try to open up the economy with certain restrictions where there’s an acceptable amount of deaths an acceptable amount of infections when a $600 extra unemployment benefit runs out that’s gonna be big news as well it’s gonna cause some concern in the stock market but let’s say the extra benefit runs out and it doesn’t get replenished but we got to know that most

States have up to about 63 weeks worth of unemployment so this is like more than a year worth of unemployment that people can get you can get like up to $1,800 per month at its maximum for unemployment in california at least but most the homes that you can live in over here you may have more than $1,800 mortgage payments so if you happen to be unemployed you’re not

Gonna be able to play the mortgage eventually it’s gonna get foreclosed on so there’s gonna be some of that going on going forward my predictions going forward has been sort of gloomy it’s kind of like an armageddon type of scenario and yeah i agree it’s kind of like on the pessimistic side but we have already seen when it rains it sort of pours first we get the

See also  How to Not Get Slapped as a Millionaire

Infections then as a result of that we have the oil crash and we also have the protests going on and i feel like there’s something coming up there’s something up at sleeves that may be mother nature has yet to throw at us or maybe the economy itself something like a new wrench a new bad thing seems like it’s gonna happen so here are some things that might be on

The horizon maybe the invasive hornets zika mosquitoes has been spotted in the bay area of california there might be a war outbreak maybe from north korea or whatnot i think if there is they might be capitalizing on this virus outbreak because a lot of economies they’re just kind of like in this era so other countries that are kind of like waiting to attack this

Is like the perfect time to attack because then they’re not as prepared and maybe the navy you know they’re gonna have issues with having a lot of people together and this might be a time where people that wants to wage wars might just jump at this opportunity now of course i don’t want war to happen but this is a slight possibility that you know i’m thinking it

Might it might just happen with so many crazy things happening and when you have a new thing coming in a new issue coming in this is when it could shock the markets and during this time seems more probable for something new to happen than when everything else is absolutely quiet thanks for watching this video just some random predictions so how am i gonna invest

Because of all this i still think the stock market is somewhat in a very very dangerous territory in a bubble i mean what more do you want do you want to stay in the stock market and think that it’s gonna go up to all-time highs during this time especially with economic output down so much it just doesn’t make sense for a lot of people if you happen to time the market

And you bought at the bottom and it came up all this way it might be a good time to take some profits you guys know for me personally i already sold out long ago i’m just sitting out sitting on it on the sidelines just waiting for the market to finally come to the realization that oh my gosh you know your hair burning right now the house is burning everything is

Burning around you but then you’re still laser focus on your video game you know but things are anyway ah thanks for watching this video don’t forget to check out my weibo referral link down in the video description below give me a like comment down below let me know if you’re in or out of the market and push that subscribe button and ring that bell icon thanks for watching

Transcribed from video
Why We Are in a Bubble By BeatTheBush

Scroll to top